112 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



Table 91. — Projected softwood timber supplies from 

 farm and miscellaneous private ownerships in the 

 Southeast, with different levels of management 



TOTAL GROWING STOCK (MILLION CUBIC 



FEET) 



Level of 



1970 



Projected annual 

 removals 



management 



First 

 decade 



Second 

 decade 



Third 

 decade 



1970 level 



1,348 

 1,348 



1,513 

 1,533 



1,721 

 1,751 



1,866 



Intensified '_ 



3,185 



SAWTIMBER (MILLION BOARD FEET) 



1 Includes treatment of an additional 14.5 million acres 

 over the next 10 years where the treatment opportunities 

 promise a 4.0 percent or better rate of return on the 

 investments. Annual costs of treating these additional 

 acres are estimated to total $72.4 million. 



extent, condition, and productive capability of 

 the land, together with prospective yields of tim- 

 ber and related forest values — under both current 

 and intensified management. Procedures must pro- 

 vide for development of criteria for identifying 

 and ranking opportunities for increasing yields, 

 including specific treatment opportunities, esti- 

 mated costs of implementing treatments and the 

 likely response in terms of added volume and 

 value. 



Although the procedures as presented herein 

 suggest a ranking of opportunities on the basis of 

 economic efficiency, policy makers also may need 

 to interject social, environmental, or other con- 

 siderations in developing management and 

 utilization programs. 



AN EXAMPLE OF POTENTIALS FOR INTEN- 

 SIFIED FOREST MANAGEMENT IN THE 

 NORTHEAST REGION 



Approximately 28 percent of the commercial 

 timberland in the Northeast is in the oak-hickory 

 type, and 23 percent in the maple-beech-birch 

 type. Because of the substantial acreage covered 

 by these two hardwood types, 42 million acres, 

 they were selected for detailed evaluation of in- 

 tensified management. This does not imply, how- 

 ever, that other forest types in the Northeast 

 present no opportunities for intensified manage- 

 ment. Farm and miscellaneous private owners hold 

 about 85 percent of the oak-hickory type and 

 over 70 percent of the maple-beech-birch type. 



Specific areas within the region where recent 

 data were available were first selected for detailed 

 analysis and case study results then extrapolated 

 to the region. Opportunities in the oak-hickory 

 type were analyzed in southeastern Ohio. The 

 maple-beech-birch type was studied in Maine. 

 Evaluation procedures are outlined below in some 

 detail for the oak-hickory case. The same general 

 approach was used in the maple-beech-birch case 

 study. 



Designation of Management Classes 



Since the 2.3 million acres of oak-hickory type 

 in southeastern Ohio contain a broad continuum 

 of stand conditions, the area was first divided into 

 relatively homogenous cells, based upon a classi- 

 fication of 680 Forest Survey plots measured in 

 1968. Each plot was placed in a matrix according 

 to six basal area classes, three tree stocking levels, 

 two average diameter classes, and five site produc- 

 tivity classes. Based upon this classification, 77 

 distinct "management classes" were identified. 



Individual management classes entailing less 

 than 15 thousand acres were excluded from further 

 analysis because of large sampling errors. Manage- 

 ment classes of site productivity below 50 cubic 

 feet per acre per year of potential growth also were 

 dropped because of low potential returns. These 

 exclusions left 36 management classes for detailed 

 study, aggregating approximately 1.8 million acres. 



Stand profiles. — As a basis for in-depth evalua- 

 tion of intensified treatments, more detailed stand 

 profiles than used for management class identifi- 

 cation were then developed for the 36 management 

 classes retained for study. Information was com- 

 piled on numbers of trees per acre by species 

 group, tree quality and diameter class, using 

 Forest Survey plot records. 



Stocking classes. — The 36 management classes 

 were all classified into one of three stocking 

 classes specified in a "1972 Timber Management 

 Guide for Upland Central Hardwoods." 6 



Stocking classes in each management class were 

 based on stocking of "acceptable" trees according 

 to the formula: 



S=-0.00507iV-f-0.01698X;#+0.00317X!£> 2 

 where 



5 r =level of stocking with acceptable trees 



N= number of acceptable trees 



D— diameter acceptable trees. 



Management strategies. — Strategies for stands in 

 each of the 36 management classes were based 



6 USDA Forest Service, Central States Forest Experi- 

 ment Station and North Central Region. 1972 Timber 

 management guide for upland central hardwoods. 33 p. 

 1972. 



