122 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



and the specified price increases. These calcu- 

 lations were on a "before taxes" basis. They were 

 also made with consideration given to the timing 

 of costs and yields for specific stands. Conse- 

 quently, factors such as the need to sustain a 

 given flow of timber harvest from an entire 

 forest were not included. 



Intensification PotentialsWith 1970 Prices 



Under this price assumption the following 

 practices promised to return more than 5 percent 

 on increased expenditures for timber manage- 

 ment in westside conifer areas. The acreages are 

 for opportunities in addition to those assumed 

 in the current trends of management : 



a. Planting on high sites. This involved a 

 total of 481,000 acres for the first decade. 



b. Precommercial thinning followed by com- 

 mercial thinning on medium and high sites, 

 with short rotations of less than 50 years. 

 This involved a total of 6,000 acres. 



c. Commercial thinning in virtually all situa- 

 tions. This involved an estimated 166,000 

 acres. 



d. Fertilization in stands to be thinned and 

 given final harvest within 20 years. This 

 involved an estimated 115,000 acres. (All 

 but 23,000 of these acres are included in the 

 166,000 acres reported above in item c.) 



e. Investments to develop and use genetically 

 supeiior stock. This appeared justified only 

 on high site lands managed under short 

 rotations. 



In eastside ponderosa pine stands commercial 

 thinning of stands approximately 55 years old 

 and having sufficient volume to support commer- 

 cial operations also was found to be feasible. 11 

 However, judgment of local foresters indicated 

 that only about 5 percent of the stands in the 

 eastside ponderosa pine region reach this con- 

 dition naturally. This would represent about 

 183 thousand acres in the ponderosa pine region 

 of Oregon, Washington, and interior California. 



Increases in timber cut from intensified practices 

 that passed the 5 percent "investment screen" 

 with 1970 prices are shown in table 98. On the 

 three classes of ownerships studied in this analysis 

 for the Pacific Coast States, increases in harvests 

 resulting from increased investments, assuming 

 1970 prices, averaged only about 1 percent for 

 the first three decades, and 3 percent for the 

 fourth and fifth decades. In decade six — beyond 

 the projection period of this study — a jump in 

 the harvest would occur as stands that were 



11 See also: Sassaman, R. W., J. W. Barrett, and J. G. 

 Smith. Economics of thinning stagnated ponderosa pine 

 sapling stands in the pine-grass areas of central Wash- 

 ington. USDA Forest Serv. Res. Pap. PNW-144, 17p. 

 1972. 



planted in decade one became available for 

 harvest. However, the increased cut would drop 

 off again unless a succession of management 

 programs were continued. 



This modest showing is a result of a combina- 

 tion of factors. With 1970 prices there were not 

 many practices with substantial growth increases 

 that passed the 5 percent screen. For those prac- 

 tices that did pass there were relatively few acres 

 in appropriate age — stocking classes that were 

 susceptible to treatment. And finally, the invest- 

 ments involved in 1970 levels of management, 

 which had to be subtracted from a total program 

 of intensification, already account for a significant 

 portion of the feasible economic opportunities. 



Management Potentials with Rising Prices 



With the higher prices for timber products 

 specified earlier, additional practices that would 

 pass a 5 percent investment screen in westside 

 conifer stands included: (a) planting of all sites, 

 with general use of genetic stock, except on low 

 sites with long rotations (85 years) — a total of 

 1,287,000 acres, and (b) conversion to softwoods of 

 mature hardwood stands of more than 45 years of 

 age on medium sites, and conversion of all hard- 

 wood stands on high sites — 1,384,000 acres. 



In eastside types (a) precommercial thinning 

 of ponderosa pine on all sites, and (b) precom- 

 mercial thinning of lodgepole pine on the higher 

 sites also passed the 5 percent investment screen. 



Even with the assumption of increasing prices, 

 the potential rise in total timber harvests from the 

 ownerships studied with intensification of the most 

 promising management opportunities would still 

 be modest, i.e., 3 to 4 percent during the first three 

 decades. However, projected harvest increases in 

 decades four and five reach 15 percent, and in 

 decade six 40 percent more than anticipated with 

 1970 management levels. With a single 10-year 

 program, increases in harvests after decade six 

 would drop to a level roughly comparable to that 

 achieved in the first three decades. The major 

 part of the increase — 70 percent — would come 

 from forest industry lands and 78 percent would 

 be in the Douglas-fir region (table 98) . 



The investment costs of planting and other 

 measures indicated in this example of intensified 

 management are estimated at $168 million as 

 shown in table 98, an average of $50 per acre. 



It appears from this analysis that the only 

 investment practices on these ownerships 

 that would have a substantial impact on timber 

 supplies in the Pacific Coast States within 50 

 years are planting of nonstocked areas and con- 

 version of hardwoods to conifer stands on private 

 lands where short rotations are assumed. These 

 practices would be justified with a 5 percent cost 

 of capital only with substantial price increases 

 over 1970 levels. 



