130 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE' UNITED STATES 



As indicated in the tabulation below, the 1970 

 level of timber consumption in Europe was nearly- 

 double the annual average of 1949-51. 



1949-61 1969-61 1970 > 



Product ' 



(Billion cubic feet wood raw material 

 equivalent) 



Sawnwood 3.5 4.6 5.6 



Wood-based panels 0.2 0.6 1.4 



Paper, paperboard, and 



dissolving pulp 1.2 2.4 4.1 



Pitprops and miscellane- 

 ous roundwood 1. 3 1. 2 0. 8 



Total industrial 



roundwood 6.2 8.8 11.9 



1 Preliminary estimate. 



Source: United Nations Economic and Social Council, Economic Com- 

 mission for Europe Timber Committee. TIM/Working Paper No. 173/Add. 

 1, 19 p. July 12, 1972. 



Table 100. — World production and consumption of 

 timber products, 1969 



[Billion cubic feet, roundwood equivalent] 



ALL PRODUCTS 



Country 



Produc- 

 tion 



Net 

 im- 

 ports 



Net 

 ex- 

 ports 



Appar- 

 ent 

 con- 

 sump- 

 tion 



United States 



Europe 



Japan. _ __ __ 

 U.S.S.R 



11. 5 



11. 1 



1. 8 



13. 4 

 37. 8 



1.4 

 1. 4 

 1. 4 



1.0 

 3.2 



12. 9 



12. 5 



3. 2 



12. 4 



Rest of world 



34. 6 



Total 



75.6 



4. 2 



4.2 



75.6 



INDUSTRIAL WOOD 



United States. 



Europe 



Japan 



10.9 



8. 8 



1.6 



10. 2 



11.2 



1. 4 

 1. 4 

 1.4 



1.0 

 3.2 



12.3 



10.2 



3. 



U.S.S.R 



Rest of world 



9.2 



8.0 



Total 



42. 7 



4. 2 



4. 2 



42. 7 



Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the 

 United Nations. Yearbook of forest products, 1969-70. 

 Rome. 1971. 



Most of the growth in consumption in the 1950- 

 70 period was in pulp products, although there 

 were also substantial increases in sawnwood and 

 wood-based panel products. During the 1960's 

 Europe changed from a net exporter of pulp and 

 panel products to a net importer of these items, 

 including substantial quantities of kraft pulp and 

 liner board and some imports of softwood ply- 

 wood from the United States. 



The major part of the other industrial wood 

 products consumed in Europe was derived from 

 European forests. Much of the consumption de- 



rived from net imports consisted of softwood 

 lumber from the USSR, Canada, and the United 

 States, and hardwood lumber from other countries 

 such as West Africa and the Asia-Pacific area. 



In general the dependence of Europe on im- 

 ports from the Soviet Union and North America 

 showed a marked rise in the 1950's and 1960's. 

 There was also a significant increase in imports 

 from Africa. The trade balance with the Asia- 

 Pacific region and Latin America was essentially 

 unchanged. 



Projections indicate that consumption of in- 

 dustrial timber products is likely to continue to 

 rise with continued expansion of European econo- 

 mies. Estimated demands for industrial timber 

 products increase by about 27 percent between 

 1970 and 1980 (table 101), and roughly double 

 by 2000. 3 Most of the projected growth is for pulp 

 and paper products and wood-based panels. De- 

 mands for sawnwood are expected to grow only a 

 little faster than population, while demands for 

 miscellaneous roundwood are expected to decline. 



Studies of the prospective European timber 

 supply situation indicate that timber supplies 

 from European forests could be expanded. How- 

 ever, the increase in supplies is much below the 

 anticipated growth in demands. As a result timber 

 deficits are projected to 2.3 billion cubic feet by 

 1980, some 60 percent above 1970 (table 101). 

 Longer run assessments indicate that by 2000 

 the deficit may be somewhere between 4.2 and 

 7.9 billion cubic feet. 3 



Recent developments in Europe suggest the 

 deficit may be in the higher part of this range. 

 For example, rapid increases in labor costs in 

 Europe and the need to protect the environment 

 may constrain intensified timber management, 

 as suggested by the following quotation from a 

 report of the Timber Committee of the Economic 

 Commission for Europe : 4 



"The rapid increase in the importance attached 

 to environmental problems in Europe may have 

 far-reaching repercussions on the management 

 of existing forest resources, to the extent that 

 environmental requirements may impose certain 

 limitations on forestry's traditional role of sup- 

 plying wood. These repercussions may be of 

 different types: they may lead to certain forest 

 areas being declared protection, conservation 

 or recreation areas, with severe restrictions on 

 their commercial exploitation, or they may con- 

 stitute hindrances to normal management and 

 exploitation because of landscaping and similar 

 constraints and thus affect the economics of 

 production." 



Although future European timber deficits are 

 uncertain, it seems reasonably clear that import 



3 United Nations Economic and Social Council, Eco- 

 nomic Commission for Europe, Timber Committee. TIM/ 

 Working Paper No. 173/Add. 1, 19 p. July 12, 1972. 



4 Op. cit., p. 15, footnote 3. 



