AVAILABILITY OF WORLD TIMBER RESOURCES 



139 



This program has faced varied difficulties such 

 as the long distances between forests and markets. 

 In spite of remoteness of much forest land, low 

 productivity of many sites, and newly recognized 

 environmental questions, there are undoubtedly 

 opportunities for large increases in timber harvests 

 in the next several decades. Exports of lumber 

 and logs are expected to continue to increase, 

 although growing domestic needs and declining 

 resource availability in European Russia may 

 constrain this trade in the longer run. 



Pulp and paper production in the Soviet 

 Union has also grown rapidly during the past 

 two decades, with almost all of this production 

 being used domestically. The current low per 

 capita consumption of paper products, and 

 difficulties experienced in meeting planned pro- 

 duction increases suggest that the Soviet Union 

 is not likely to become a major supplier of pulp 

 products to'foreign markets for some time to come. 



A SUMMARY OF PROSPECTIVE TRENDS IN 

 U.S. TIMBER IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 



In spite of growing world demands for timber 

 products, it has been estimated in this study that 

 potentials for increased harvests, especially in 

 Canada and the tropical hardwood regions, are 

 sufficient to provide significant increases in U.S. 

 imports of timber products in the years immedi- 

 atelv ahead. With prices averaging 30 percent 

 above the 1970 level, for example, total projected 

 imports rise from 2.9 billion cubic feet, round- 

 wood equivalent, in 1972 to 4.7 billion cubic feet 

 by the year 2000 (tables 112 and 113). 



The largest increases in imports are expected 

 in lumber and pulp and paper products from 

 Canada. It also seems likely that the United 

 States will draw somewhat more heavily on 

 tropical forests for some time to come in spite 

 of the uncertainties surrounding the long-term 

 outlook. 



Along with rising imports it also appears 

 likely that exports of some U.S. timber products 

 will increase somewhat as a result of expanding 

 world markets (tables 112 and 113). Kraft pulp 

 and paper products are expected to represent 

 the bulk of increased exports. Some increases in 

 exports of logs and chips also have been assumed, 

 although it is of course possible that nonmarket 

 factors outside the basic assumptions of this 

 study might lead to restrictions on exports of 

 these raw materials. 



Looking some decades into the future, there 

 are two possibilities that appear to be of partic- 

 ular importance in the long-run timber outlook: 



• With the tightening of the timber supply 

 situation that is in prospect, the United 

 States will surely find it increasingly diffi- 

 cult to supply wood products to other nations. 



• Output of wood products in timber surplus 

 countries may drop following the liquidation 

 of accessible" old-growth. In such case the 

 United States may not be able to maintain 

 the levels of timber imports temporarily 

 achieved. Such possibilities could be de- 

 ferred by development of forests in the 

 USSR to supply more of the world timber 

 market, by major expansion of plantations, 

 and by greater use of the less desirable 

 timber" species in tropical forests. For the 

 long run a question still remains, whether 

 anticipated timber demands of the world 

 can be supplied in the absence of a substantial 

 improvement in forest management. 



Projections of net timber imports developed 

 under the assumptions of this study continue 

 to rise over the next several decades and offer 

 a partial solution to U.S. timber supply-demand 

 problems. Other alternatives for increasing tim- 

 ber supplies from U.S. forests, and for obtaining 

 closer utilization of available timber, also are of 

 large importance in improving the timber out- 

 look as indicated in other chapters of this report. 



