148 THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE. UNITED STATES 



Stumpage prices for Douglas-fir industries but it was assumed for this projection, 



and southern pine 1910 - 72, largely on the basis of prospective timber demand- 



with projections to 2000 iSatedl^' ^ ^^ ^^ W ° UM ™ e &S 



„ . , , . , These three sets of price assumptions are sum- 



onnuoTincreair manzed for the major timber products below: 



=? 80 ^-^~' Relative wholesale price ind exes 



•S 60 Douglas-fir J ^^ " Product and price assumptions 1970 1980 1990 mm 



« '\/i/ "" Lumber: 



40 3 Nu\'ir^ ',V ';! 7()levcl .- — l0 ° l0 ° 10() ioo 



southern pine / \J (2) 30 percent increase 100 130 130 130 



„\ ll\ (3) Rising prices 110 128 148 172 



. |VA A Plywood : 



&™ 701evel 10 ° 1Q o ioo ioo 



(2) 30 percent increase 100 130 130 130 



(3) Rising prices 110 122 134 148 



.Paper and board : 



(1)1970 level 100 100 100 100 



{£) 10 percent increase 100 110 110 110 



I 3 ,'.,. (3) Rising prices 105 110 116 122 



y V 



' 2 . Variables affecting prices oj timber products.— 



Past increases in relative prices of timber products 

 , presumably have resulted from a combination of 



.9,0 ,920 ,930 ,940 ,9 50 ,960 ,970 ,9eo ,990 2000 factors such as increasing competition for the 



available timber, and in some cases, rising costs of 

 hl9ure57 timber harvesting and manufacturing due to 



slower rates of technological progress than in other 



(2) In recognition of the likelihood of future economic sectors. 



price increases a second set of demand projec- Variation in price trends among timber products 



tions was based on the assumption that through are attributed in part to different trends in pro- 

 the projection period relative wholesale prices of ductivity. The differences also reflect the relative 

 lumber and plywood would be 30 percent, mis- importance of stumpage costs. In recent years, 

 cellaneous products and fuel wood 15 percent, and stumpage costs have made up roughly 35 to 45 

 paper and board 10 percent above 1970 average percent of the f.o.b. mill prices of softwood lumber, 

 pn ^ s - for example, compared to 5 to 10 percent of the 



I he assumed level for lumber and plywood mi H price of the lower grades of paper and board, 

 approximates the actual increases in relative soft- Stumpage price trends.— Stumpage prices have 



^°H 1Q79 P^ood prices between 1970 risen more rapidly in recent decades than prices 



toy a i.- j ° f lumber and other processed timber products. 



(3) A third set of projections was developed For example, between 1910 and 1970 relative 

 under the assumption that relative wholesale prices of Douglas-fir stumpage rose an average of 

 prices of timber products would rise from the 3.5 percent annually, while southern pine stumpage 

 1970 trend level through the projection period increased about 3.2 percent annually (fig. 57; 

 much as in the past. For lumber the assumed Append. V, table 2). 



average annual increase for these "rising" prices The faster percentage increase in stumpage 



was 1.5 percent. *or plywood, miscellaneous prod- prices in comparison to product prices suggests 

 ucts, and iuelwood a 1.0 percent rise per year that growing economic scarcity of timber has been 

 was assumed and for paper and board 0.5 percent. of greater importance than increases in costs of 



brace 1800 the relative wholesale price index for harvesting and manufacturing in determining 

 lumber increased at an average annual rate of product prices. Also, in recent years closer utiliza- 

 i./ percent. I here have been periods when this tion of timber for a combination of products such 

 ™fj h0 J ed k Ul £ change as in the period as lumber, plywood, and pulp chips, and better 

 i ysu , b yig. 55), but the longrun rising trend allocation of timber for highest value products, 

 has been fairly steady. have tended to increase stumpage values, as well 



Eelative prices of pulp, paper, and board also as increase recovery of timber per acre logged, 

 leveled off in the 1952-70 period, but during the Regardless of the cause, the differential rates 



longer period from 1926 to 1970, price increases of growth in stumpage and product prices mean 

 averaged about 0.5 percent annually. Relative that much of the increase in product prices has 

 prices of softwood and hardwood plywood declined been passed on to stumpage owners. Based in 

 sharply after 1950 in response to major improve- part on past trends in relationships between 

 ments in technology in these rapidly growing stumpage and product prices shown by a number 



