DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



Table 119. — Housing vacancies, 1920-70, with projections to 2000 



155 







Proportion of housing inventory 



Year Vacant units 



Total For sale or 

 rent 1 



Not for sale 

 or rent 2 



Dilapidated 



1920 



1930 - 



Thousands 



200 

 2,590 

 2,361 

 3,168 

 5,444 

 5,214 



Percent 



0.8 

 7.9 

 6.3 

 6.9 

 9.3 

 7.6 



Percent 



NA 

 NA 

 4. 1 

 1.6 

 3.5 

 3.5 



Percent 



NA 

 NA 

 2.2 

 4.2 

 4.9 

 3. 5 



Percent 



NA 

 NA 



1940 







1950 



1960 



1970 



1. 1 



.9 

 .5 



Low projections 



1980. 

 1990. 

 2000. 



1980. 

 1990. 

 2000. 



1980. 

 1990. 

 2000. 



6,900 



8,700 



10,300 



8.3 

 9.0 

 9.5 



4.0 

 4. 1 

 4. 1 



4.3 

 4.9 

 5.4 



Medium projections 



7,200 



9,400 



11,600 



8.6 



9.5 



10.4 



4.0 

 4. 1 

 4. 1 



46 

 5.4 

 6.3 



High projections 



7,400 

 10,000 

 12,800 



8.7 

 10.0 

 11. 1 



4.0 

 4. 1 

 4. 1 



4.7 

 5.9 

 7.0 



1 Data for 1960, 1970, and projections include units 

 available for sale or rent and and units sold or rented 

 awaiting occupancy. For 1940 and 1950 units sold or 

 rented awaiting occupancy not included. For 1940 includes 

 dilapidated units. 



2 Data for 1960, 1970, and projections include seasonal 

 units, units held for occasional use, temporarily occupied 

 units, and units held for personal reasons of the owner. 

 For 1940 and 1950 also includes units sold or awaiting 

 occupancy. 



(medium level). The associated demand for new 

 housing unit production is estimated at 200 

 thousand units annually in the 1970's (medium 

 level), rising to 220 thousand units in the 1980's 

 and 1990's (table 117, fig. 61). 



These vacancy rates, and associated housing 

 demand, do not include vacant mobile homes. 

 The estimates of mobile home demand (table 120), 

 however, do include allowances for mobile home 

 vacancies, as well as for mobile home units used 

 for nonhousing purposes. 



Total Demand for New Housing 



The total number of housing units produced in 

 the United States during the 1960's averaged 

 1.65 million units per year (table 120). This 

 was slightly above the average for the 1950's 

 and about double the numbers produced in the 

 1920's and 1940's. 



Note: Does not include vacant mobile homes. 



Sources: Forest Service estimates derived from data in 

 the following sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, 

 Bureau of the Census. Historical statistics of the United 

 States, colonial times to 1957. 1960; 1970 census of housing. 

 Ser. HC(V1)-1, 1971. 



Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

 Service. 



Production of housing units jumped to 2.4 

 million units in 1971, and to 2.9 million units 

 in 1972 — materially above the trend level pro- 

 jected in this study for the early 1970's. However, 

 housing has been highly cyclical (fig. 61), and 

 production in peak years can be expected to sub- 

 stantially exceed trend values. 



The trend level projections shown in this study 

 and similar projections prepared by the National 

 Association of Homebuilders, 18 show a sharply 

 rising trend in housing demand in the 1970's. 

 By the early 1980's the medium projection of 

 this study reaches more than 2.7 million units 

 annually (fig. 62). Starting in the late 1980's 

 there is some decline in projected housing demand — 



18 National Association of Home Builders. Housing 

 requirements for the '70's. Econ. News Notes 18(7). 

 Washington. July 1972. 



