166 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



Projected Demand for Timber Products in New Non- 

 residential Construction 



With respect to the future, it has been assumed 

 that the forces affecting demand will continue to 

 reduce use of timber products per dollar of ex- 

 penditures (table 126, fig. 64; Append. V, tables 

 7-9). The projected declines are not enough to 

 offset expected increases in expenditure, however, 

 and as a result projected demands for timber 

 products at 1970 relative prices increase through 

 the projection period. Projected demand for lum- 

 ber by 2000 reaches 4.4 billion board feet (medium 

 projection and 1970 prices) — some 67 percent 

 above 1970. Projected demand for plywood under 

 these assumptions rises about 2.7 times in the 

 30-year period, and demand for building board 

 more than doubles. 



DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS IN 

 RAILROAD CONSTRUCTION 



In 1970 close to a billion board feet of lumber, 

 nearly all in the form of ties, and about 25 million 

 square feet (%-inch basis) of plywood were used 

 by the railroad industry in the maintenance and 

 construction of tracks and freight cars. 



Substantial volumes of lumber and plywood 

 were also used in the construction and main- 

 tenance of nonresidential structures used by 

 railroads and in the manufacture of freight cars. 

 Information on past use and projected demands 

 for timber products in these uses is included in 

 other sections of this report dealing with non- 

 residential construction and manufacturing. 



Between the 1920's and the early 1960's, the 

 number of railway crossties used annually dropped 

 from an average of about 96 million to less than 15 

 million (table 127). The downward trend in use 

 reflected a major reduction in construction of 

 new track, a drop in railroad track mileage, 

 increased average life of ties resulting from use of 

 wood preservatives, use of various devices to 

 reduce mechanical wear and splitting of wood 

 ties, use of welded track, and a shift to diesel 

 locomotives with reduced track wear. 



Since the early 1960's the long downward 

 trend in crosstie use has reversed and the number 

 consumed has been rising slowly. This rise is 

 expected to continue because of the growing 

 need for improved track maintenance and some 

 decline in average tie life resulting from the 

 trend toward heavier wheel loads, higher speed 

 trains, and the growing volume of rail traffic. 



Replacement demand for crossties has there- 

 fore been projected to rise to 31 million (medium 

 projection at 1970 relative prices) by 1980 and 

 remain at or slightly below this level through 

 2000. This rate of replacement implies an average 

 tie life of about 30 years. It also assumes there 

 will be no substantive reduction in the mileage 

 of track operated. 



Total demand for both crossties and switch and 

 bridge ties is projected to rise to 1.4 billion board 

 feet by 2000 — some 1.6 times consumption in 1970. 



In addition to ties, an estimated 200 million 

 board feet of lumber and 25 million square feet 

 (%-inch basis) of plywood was used annually in 

 the 1960's in the construction and repair of 

 railroad cars in industry owned facilities. Such 

 factors as growing numbers of freight cars, in- 

 creasing size of cars, and the use of heavier decking, 

 will tend to increase demands for lumber and 

 plywood in car repair. Changes in the types of 

 cars, however, and use of other materials in car 

 construction appear likely to limit demands for 

 lumber and plywood. In view of these considera- 

 tions demand for lumber for car construction and 

 repair within the railroad industry has been 

 projected at 300 million board feet, and demand 

 for plywood at 50 million square feet, in all 

 projection years. 



DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS IN 

 MANUFACTURING 



About a tenth of the lumber, veneer and ply- 

 wood, and a third of the hardboard and particle- 

 board, consumed in 1970 was used in the 

 manufacture of a wide range of products such as 

 furniture, truck bodies and other items listed in 

 footnotes to table 128. 



These products have been divided into five 

 groups, including: (1) household furniture, (2) 

 commercial and institutional furniture, (3) con- 

 sumer goods, (4) commercial and industrial 

 equipment, and (5) other products. Products in 

 each group have more or less similar characteristics 

 in relation to timber products use, and similar 

 relationships to basic determinants of demand such 

 as gross national product or per capita disposable 

 personal income. 



In addition to these specified manufactured 

 items, substantial volumes of timber products 

 are used in other manufactured goods such 

 as pallets, prefabricated wooden buildings and 

 structural members, containers, mobile homes, 

 millwork, and flooring. Information on use and 

 projected demands for timber products in the 

 manufacture of these items is included in other 

 sections of this report dealing with construction 

 and shipping. 



Timber Products Use in Manufacturing 



Consumption of timber products in the manu- 

 facture of goods included in this section increased 

 substantially in the 1960's (table 128) . 28 The most 



28 The data for 1948, 1960, and 1965 shown in table 128 

 were obtained from Forest Service surveys of wood used 

 in manufacturing industries. The 1970 estimates were up- 

 dated from 1965 on the basis of changes in value of ship- 

 ments and trends in wood use per dollar of shipments. 



