182 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER- IN THE UNITED STATES 



Table 



137.— Lumber consumption, exports imports, and domestic production, selected years 1920-72, with projections under 

 alternate price assumptions (medium projections of growth in population and economic activity) to 2000 



Year 



Domestic consumption 



Exports 



Imports 



Domestic production 





Total 



Per capita 



Soft- 

 woods 



Hard- 

 woods 



Total 



Soft- 

 woods ' 



Hard- 

 woods 



Total 



Soft- 

 woods l 



Hard- 

 woods 



Total 



Soft- 

 woods 



Hard- 

 woods 



1920 



1925 



1930. 



1935 

 1940. 



1945 

 1950 

 1955 

 1960 

 1965 



1966 

 1967 

 1968 

 1969 



1970 



1971 s 



1972 3 



Billion 

 board feet 

 34.6 

 40.2 

 28.2 

 22.1 

 31.0 



28.8 

 40.9 

 40.1 

 36.0 

 41.1 



40.8 

 38.8 

 41.5 

 41.0 

 39.5 



43.5 



47.4 



Board feet 



325 

 347 

 229 

 173 

 234 



205 

 269 

 242 

 199 

 212 



207 

 195 

 207 

 202 

 193 



210 

 227 



Billion 

 board feet 

 27.4 

 32.8 

 22.5 

 17.6 

 25.4 



21.7 

 33.4 

 32.5 

 29.6 

 33.4 



32.8 

 31.1 

 34.0 

 33.2 

 32.1 



36.4 

 40.0 



Billion 

 board feet 

 7.2 

 7.5 

 5.8 

 4.5 

 5.5 



7.0 

 7.5 

 7.6 

 6.4 

 7.7 



8.0 

 7.6 

 7.4 

 7.8 

 7.3 



7.1 

 7.4 



Billion 

 board feet 

 1.7 

 2.6 

 2.4 

 1.3 

 1.0 



.4 

 .5 

 .8 

 .9 

 .9 



1.0 

 1.1 

 1.2 

 1.1 

 1.3 



1.1 

 1.5 



Billion 

 board feet 

 1.5 

 2.2 

 1.9 

 1.0 

 .8 



.3 



.4 

 .7 

 .7 

 .8 



.9 

 1.0 

 1.0 

 1.0 

 1.2 



.9 

 1.2 



Billion 

 board feet 

 0.2 

 .4 

 .4 

 .3 

 .2 



.1 

 .1 

 .2 

 .2 

 .1 



.2 

 .2 

 .1 

 .1 

 .1 



.2 

 .3 



Billion 

 board feet 

 1.4 

 1.8 

 1.2 

 .4 

 .7 



1.1 

 3.4 

 3.6 

 3.9 



5.2 



5.2 

 5.1 

 6.2 

 6.3 

 6.1 



7.6 

 9.4 



Billion 

 board feet 

 1.3 

 1.7 

 1.2 

 .4 

 .6 



.9 

 3.1 

 3.3 

 3.6 



4.9 



4.8 

 4.8 

 5.8 

 5.9 



5.8 



7.2 

 9.0 



Billion 

 board feet 

 ( 2 ) 

 0.1 

 ( 2 ) 

 .1 

 .1 



.2 

 .3 

 .3 

 .3 

 .3 



.4 

 .3 

 .3 

 .4 

 .3 



.4 

 .4 



Billion 

 board feet 

 35.0 

 41.0 

 29.4 

 22.9 

 31.2 



28.1 

 38.0 

 37.4 

 32.9 

 36.8 



36.6 

 34.7 

 36.5 

 35.8 

 34.7 



37.0 

 39.4 



Billion 

 board feet 

 27.6 

 33.3 

 23.2 

 18.2 

 25.6 



21.1 

 30.6 

 29.8 

 26.7 

 29.3 



28.8 

 27.3 

 29.3 

 28.3 

 27.5 



30.3 

 32.2 



Billion 



board feet 

 7.4 

 7.7 

 6.1 

 4.7 

 5.5 



7.0 

 7.4 

 7.6 

 6.3 



7.5 



7.7 

 7.4 

 7.2 

 7.5 

 7.1 



6.9 



7.2 













Projections— 1970 relative prices 















Year 



Domestic demand 



Exports 



Imports 



Demand on U.S. mills 



1980 



1990 



2000 



51.0 

 57.9 

 62.1 



224 

 227 

 221 



41.8 



46.9 

 49.7 



9.2 

 11.0 

 12.4 



1.3 

 1.3 



1.3 



1.2 

 1.2 

 1.2 



0.1 

 .1 

 .1 



7.4 

 7.4 

 7.4 



7.0 

 7.0 

 7.0 



0.4 

 .4 

 .4 



44.9 

 51.8 

 56.0 



36.0 

 41.1 

 43.9 



8.9 

 10.7 

 12.1 



Projections— rising relative prices * 



1980. 

 1990. 

 2000. 



1980. 

 1990. 

 2000. 



44.5 

 46.6 

 45.7 



195 

 183 

 163 



36.5 

 37.7 

 36.6 



1.3 

 1.3 

 1.3 



1.2 

 1.2 

 1.2 



10.0 

 12.7 

 13.9 



9.5 



.5 



35.8 



28.2 



7.6 



12.0 



.7 



35.2 



26.9 



8.3 



13.0 



.9 



33.1 



24.8 



8.3 



Projections— relative prices 30 percent above 1970 average 5 



43.3 



190 



35.5 



49.3 



193 



39.9 



52.8 



188 



42.2 



'Includes small volumes of mixed species (not classified as hardwoods or 

 softwoods). 



2 Less than 50 million board feet. 



3 Preliminary Forest Service estimates. 



« With relative prices rising at an annual rate of 1.5 percent from the 1970 

 trend level. 

 ! This approximates softwood lumber prices in early 1972. 



Demand on U.S. mills for lumber. — Domestic 

 lumber production was 34.7 billion board feet in 

 1970, and 39.4 billion board feet in 1972 — some- 

 what above the average of 36 billion board feet 

 produced annually over the 1950's and 1960's 

 (table 137; Append. V, table 15). 



Given the projections of total U.S. demand, 

 imports and exports discussed above, projected 

 demand for domestic lumber at 1970 relative 

 prices rises to some 56 billion board feet by 2000 

 (medium projection). With relative prices rising 

 at 1.5 percent per year, demand on U.S. mills in 

 1980 would be close to the average of the 1950's 

 and 1960's (36 billion board feet), but would fall 

 thereafter to about 33 billion board feet in 2000. 

 Under the third assumptions with relative prices 

 30 percent above the 1970 average, projected 



7.8 



1.3 



1.2 



.1 



11.1 



10.5 



.6 



33.5 



26.2 



7.3 



9.4 



1.3 



1.2 



.1 



12.6 



12.0 



.6 



38.0 



29.1 



8.9 



10.6 



1.3 



1.2 



.1 



12.6 



12.0 



.6 



41.5 



31.4 



10.1 



Note: Data may not add to totals because of rounding. 



Sources: 1920-71— U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 

 Production— Lumber production and mill stocks. Curr. Ind. Reps. Ser. 

 MA-24T (annual); Exports— V. S. exports— schedule B commodity and country. 

 FT 410 (monthly); Imports— V. S. imports— general consumption, schedule A 

 commodity and country. FT 135 (monthly). 



Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 



demands for domestically produced lumber would 

 approximate 33.5 billion board feet in 1980 and 

 41.5 billion board feet in 2000. 



Since the early 1900's softwoods have accounted 

 for about 80 percent of the domestic cut. In 

 response to differences in the projected rates of 

 growth in demands in the major end uses, such 

 as residential construction and furniture and 

 pallet manufacture, the proportion of domestic 

 production composed of softwoods, is projected to 

 decline slightly over the projection period, par- 

 ticularly under rising prices which would act to 

 stimulate softwood lumber imports. 



Plywood Consumption and Demand 



Plywood consumption reached 17.8 billion 

 square feet (%-inch basis) in 1970 and 23.5 billion 



