192 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



relative prices is projected to rise to 83 million 

 tons (medium level) in 1980, and to 157 million 

 tons in 2000 — some 2.7 times consumption in 

 1970 (table 142, fig. 71). Projections of per capita 

 demand also rise rapidly, reaching 729 pounds 

 in 1980 and 1,114 pounds in 2000 (table 143, 

 fig. 71). 



As indicated in the following tabu ] ation, the 

 medium projections of demand for paper and 

 board in 1980 are close to projections shown in 

 a preceding Forest Service study 39 and to those 

 developed by Slatin of the American Paper 

 Institute 40 and the Midwest Research Institute. 41 



This study-._ 

 Preceding FS 



study __ 



API study... 

 MRI study... 



Total 



{million tons) 





Per capita (pounds) 



Paper 

 and 

 board 

 83 



86 

 87 



Paper 1 

 43 



44 

 45 

 42 



ioard 

 40 



42 

 42 .. 



Paper 

 and 

 board 

 729 



728 



Paper Board 

 381 348 



376 352 



83 



41 __ 







Annual rates of growth in both total and per 

 capita demands for paper and board show sub- 

 stantial declines over the projection period. That 

 for per capita demand, for example, falls from an 

 average of 2.4 percent in the 1960's to 2.0 percent 

 in the 1990's. 



Effects of the alternative assumptions on 

 growth in population and gross national product 

 are substantial, with projected total demand for 

 paper and board ranging from 130 million tons to 

 190 million tons in 2000 (table 143). These pro- 

 jections would, of course, be somewhat lower with 

 higher prices, as indicated in the tabulation below 

 showing the medium projections of demand under 

 alternative price assumptions. 



Projections — 1970 relative prices 



Year 



1980. 

 1990_ 

 2000. 



Total 



(million 



tons) 



83. 1 



116. 1 



156. 6 



Paper 

 (million 

 tons) 

 43. 4 

 59. 2 

 78.0 



Board 

 (million 

 tons) 

 39. 7 

 56. 9 

 78. 6 



xou. u ^8. u 7} 



Projections— relative prices rising 0.6 percent per year 



L980.. 82.6 43.1 39 5 



114. 3 58. 3 56! 



152. 5 76. 



1990 

 2000 



iWU 152.5 76.0 76.5 



Projections—relative prices 10 percent above 1970 average 

 }^9. 81 - 4 42.5 38 9 



1980 

 1990 

 2000 



81. 4 

 113. 8 

 153. 5 



42. 5 

 58. 

 76. 5 



38. 9 

 55.8 

 77.0 



With inelastic demand, as assumed in the 

 introductory section, projections would be lowered 



39 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 

 Vise of regession equations for projecting trends in demand 

 tor paper and board. Op. cit. 



* c Slatin, Benjamin. Timber requirements of the paper 

 industry in the seventies and eighties. American Paper 

 Institute. New York. 1971. 



« Midwest Research Institute. Paper recycling the art 

 (H the possible 1970-1985. Kansas City. 1973. 



appreciably only with very large increases in 

 relative prices. 



Exports of paper and board.— Exports of paper 

 and board have been small in relation to U S 

 consumption, but have risen rapidly in recent years 

 to a 1972 total of 3 million tons (table' 144; 



Table 144. — Paper and board consumption, exports, 

 imports, and domestic production, selected years 

 1920-72, with projections l (1970 relative prices) 

 to 2000 2 



[Million tons] 



Year 



Apparent 

 consump- 

 tion 



Exports 



Imports 



Domestic 

 produc- 

 tion 



1920 



1925... 



1930 



1935 



1940. 



1945. . 

 1950 ... 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1966 

 1967 

 1968 

 1969 

 1970 



1971 

 1972 3 



7. 7 

 10.4 

 12. 3 

 12. 8 

 16. 8 



19. 8 

 29. 1 

 35.0 

 39. 3 

 49. 2 



52. 8 

 52. 

 55. 8 

 59.0 



58. 1 



59. 7 

 64. 3 



0. 2 

 . 1 

 . 2 

 . 1 

 . 5 



. 4 

 . 3 

 . 7 

 . 9 



1. 6 



1.8 

 2.0 

 2.5 

 2.6 



2.7 



3.0 

 3. 



0. 8 

 1.5 

 2.3 



2.4 



2.8 



2. 8 

 5.0 

 5.5 

 5.7 



6.8 



7.5 

 7. 1 

 7.0 

 7.4 



7. 2 



7. 6 

 7.9 



7.2 



9.0 



10.2 



10. 5 



14. 5 



17.4 

 24. 4 

 30. 2 

 34. 4 

 44. 1 



47. 1 

 46.9 

 51. 2 



54. 2 

 53.5 



55. 1 

 59. 3 





Low 



projections 





Year 



Domestic 

 demand 



Exports 



Imports 



Demand on 

 U.S. mills 



1980 

 1990 

 2000. _. 



78. 2 

 102. 5 

 130.4 



3.5 

 3.5 

 3.5 



8.0 

 8.0 

 8.0 



73. 7 



98.0 



125.9 



Medium projections 



1 Projections based on alternative assumptions about 

 growth in population and economic activity as specified in 

 the introductory section of this chapter. 



2 Data may not add to totals because of rounding. 



3 Preliminary. 



Sources: See source note, table 142. 



