204 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES. 



developed in metropolitan areas for fireplace 

 wood. Expected increases in income, population, 

 and residential construction indicate this market 

 may continue to grow. 



In this study it has been assumed that demand 

 for round fuelwood would continue at about the 

 1970 level through the projection period although 

 new air pollution standards could reduce this 

 demand. 



LOG EXPORTS AND IMPORTS 



The above discussion has been primarily con- 

 cerned with demand for processed timber products. 

 In addition, between the late 1950's and 1972, 

 exports of logs from the United States rose from 

 around 100 million board feet (local log scale) to 

 3.1 billion board feet, shown by the following 

 tabulation. 



Volume and destination 

 (million board feet, local log rules) 



Year Total Japan Canada Other 



1950 48 43 5 



1955 166 18 138 10 



1960 266 99 151 17 



1965 1,193 804 353 35 



1970 2,753 2,377 292 84 



1971 2,292 1,847 343 102 



1972 '3,143 2,530 519 95 



1 Equivalent to about 4.1 billion board feet, lumber tally, and 3.9 billion 

 board feet, International 34 -inch 'og rule. 



Nearly all of the recent increase in log exports 

 was composed of softwood logs produced in west- 

 ern Washington, western Oregon, and northern 

 California. The rapid growth in these exports was 

 a result of large increases in demand in Japan — the 

 destination of 96 percent of recent softwood log 

 shipments. As indicated in Chapter IV, Japanese 

 demands for wood are expected to continue to 

 grow and continuing pressures to increase log im- 

 ports can be expected. 



Part of increased Japanese timber demands in 

 the next couple of decades could be met from the 

 softwood forests of Siberia and from other sources 

 such as New Zealand and tropical regions. Canada 

 can be expected to supply larger quantities of 

 softwood lumber to Japan but no significant ex- 

 ports of softwood logs since the export of logs from 

 that country is controlled. 



Although part of the Japanese import demand 

 can be met from these sources, continuing growth 

 in Japanese demand for logs from the Pacific Coast 

 is likely, at least during the next two decades. 

 However, the tightening timber supply situation 

 in the United States is expected to eventually 

 result in restrictions on log exports. It has, there- 

 fore, been assumed that softwood log exports would 

 not exceed 4.5 billion board feet annually (Inter- 

 national %-inch log rule) . 



Hardwood log exports have not been large — 94 

 million board feet in 1972, for example — but these 

 exports have consisted for the most part of scarce 



and highly valuable species like walnut. No sig- 

 nificant change in such exports is projected. 



Log imports in 1972 were 39 million board feet, 

 log scale. This was materially below imports of 

 over 200 million feet a year in the early 1950's 

 and the annual average of about 100 million board 

 feet in recent years. Over half of these log imports 

 originated in Canada and consisted chiefly of 

 softwood logs for pulp and lumber. Most other log 

 imports were tropical hardwoods for manufacture 

 of veneer. Not much change from the level of log 

 imports in the 1960's is expected during the pro- 

 jection period. 



SUMMARY OF DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



The projections of demand for timber products 

 presented above have been in standard units of 

 measure, that is, board feet of lumber, square feet 

 of plywood, cords of pulpwood and fuelwood, and 

 cubic feet of miscellaneous industrial roundwood 

 products. In this section these projections are 

 converted to common units of measure — cubic 

 feet of roundwood and board feet of sawtimber. 

 After allowances for exports and imports, these 

 figures provide a measure of demand upon domes- 

 tic timber resources which are comparable to the 

 projections of domestic timber supplies shown in 

 Chapters II and III. 



Improvements in Utilization 



An important factor in converting demands for 

 timber products to roundwood is the prospective 

 change in utilization practices. During the past 

 couple of decades there have been substantial 

 improvements in utilizing the timber harvested. 

 This is illustrated in figure 76 which shows that 

 during the period 1950-72 the tonnage of timber 

 products consumed — lumber, plywood, woodpulp, 

 etc. — increased 51 percent, while the cubic volume 

 of roundwood utilized increased only 38 percent 

 (Append. V, tables 29 and 30). 



Consumption of industrial wood 



o 130 



