208 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



63 percent by 2000 — from 9.7 to 15.8 billion cubic 

 feet. Demand for hardwoods is projected to rise 

 about 133 percent from 3.0 to 7.0 billion cubic 

 feet. The faster rate of growth in demand for 

 hardwoods, and the reversal of the downward 

 trend of recent years, largely reflects the projected 

 rise in demand for hardwood round wood for 

 pulp products, hardwood lumber for pallets, and 

 hardwood plywood and veneer for furniture 

 manufacture. 



Projected Demand for Sawtimber 



About 70 percent of the roundwood consumed 

 in 1970 came from the saw-log portion of saw- 

 timber trees (See Append. II). Trends in con- 

 sumption of sawtimber in the past couple of 

 decades have been very similar to the trends 

 for total roundwood, that is not much rise in 

 the 1950's but a fairlv rapid upward movement 

 in the 1960's and early 1970's (table 151, fig. 78; 

 Append. V, tables 33-35). 



With 1970 relative prices, projected demand 

 (medium level) for softwood sawtimber rises from 

 47.6 billion board feet in 1970 to 72.6 billion 

 board feet in 2000 — an increase of 53 percent. 



Projected demand for hardwood sawtimber 

 (medium level — 1970 prices) also moves up from 

 12.3 billion board feet in 1970 to 24.3 billion feet 

 by 2000, an increase of nearly 100 percent. 



The alternative assumptions on population and 

 economic activity result in a substantial range in 

 projected demand for sawtimber. By 2000, pro- 

 jected demands at 1970 prices vary from about 63 

 billion to 84 billion board feet — levels that are 

 respectively 13 percent below and 16 percent above 

 the medium level. 



Since most sawtimber is used for lumber and 

 plywood, where demand is relatively responsive 

 to price changes, projected demands under higher 

 price assumptions are materially lower than with 

 the 1970 price assumptions. 



Thus, with rising prices (that is, with lumber 

 prices rising at 1.5 percent, plywood prices rising 

 by 1.0 percent, and paper and board prices rising 

 by 0.5 percent) the medium projection of demand 

 for softwood sawtimber in 2000 amounts to about 

 55 billion board feet — some 16 percent above 1970, 

 but 24 percent below the projected level with 1970 

 relative prices. 



Projected hardwood sawtimber demand in 2000, 

 under this rising price assumption, totals 19.1 

 billion board feet — 55 percent above 1970. 



With prices of softwood lumber and plywood 30 

 percent above the 1970 average, paper and board 

 prices 10 percent and other products 15 percent 

 higher, projected demand for softwood sawtimber 

 reaches 61.9 billion board feet by 2000, and hard- 

 wood sawtimber about 21 billion board feet. 



Sawtimber consumption, 1950 -72 with 

 projected demand ( medium level ) to 2000 

 under alternative price assumptions 





a - 1970 relative pric«> 



b thing relative pricei 



c ■ Relative prices above 1970 average 



Figure 78 



Projected Export Demand 



The roundwood equivalent of exports of timber 

 products — lumber, pulp products, logs, etc. — 

 increased from 0.1 billion cubic feet in 1950 to 

 1.4 billion cubic feet in 1970 (table 152, fig. 79; 

 Append. V, tables 30-32). Most of the increase in 

 exports in these two decades was for logs and pulp 

 products produced mainly from softwood timber. 



Estimated volumes of sawtimber used for ex- 

 ported products also showed a large increase 



