216 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



Table 155. — Summary of softwood timber demand, exports, imports and demand on and supply from U.S. 

 forests, 1952, 1962, and 1970, with projections to 2000 {medium level) under alternative price and man- 

 agement assumptions 



BILLION CUBIC FEET 



Item 



Total U.S. demand 



Exports 



Imports 



Demand on U.S. forests 



Supply from U.S. forests — 



base projections 4 



Supply-demand balance. 



1952 i 



8.4 



. 2 



1.3 



7.3 



7.3 



1962 



8.5 



. 4 



1.7 



7.2 



7. 2 



1970 : 



9.7 

 1.2 

 2. 1 



Projections 



1970 relative 

 prices 



1980 



12. 1 

 1. 7 

 2.3 



11.5 



10. 1 

 -1.4 



1990 



14. 1 

 1.6 

 2.3 



13.4 



10.7 

 -2.7 



2000 



15. 8 

 1.6 

 2.3 



15. 1 



11.5 

 -3.6 



Rising relative 

 prices 2 



1980 



11. 2 

 1.7 

 3. 1 

 9.8 



10. 1 



+ 0. 3 



1990 



12.4 

 1.6 

 3.7 



10. 3 



10. 

 + 0. 



2000 



13. 5 

 1.6 

 4. 



11. 1 



11.5 



f 0. 4 



Relative prices 

 above 1970 

 averages 3 



1980 



1990 



10. 7 



12. 7 



1. 7 



1. 6 



3. 2 



3.6 



9. 2 



10. 7 



10. 1 



10. 7 



+ 0.9 





2000 



14.3 

 1.6 

 3.7 



12.2 



11.5 



-.7 



BILLION BOARD FEET, INTERNATIONAL ^-INCH LOG RULE 



Total U.S. demand 



Exports 



Imports 



Demand on U.S. forests 



Supply from U.S. forests — 



base projections 4 



Supply-demand balance. 

 Supply from U.S. forests — 



economic projections 5 



Supply-demand balance. 

 Increased supply from U.S. 

 forests with intensified 



management 6 



Supply-demand balance. 



39.9 



. 6 



2.4 



38. 1 



38.1 



41. 7 

 1. 1 

 4. 6 



38. 2 



38. 2 



47. 6 



4. 6 



5. 9 

 46. 2 



46. 2 



58. 9 

 5.6 

 6. 6 



57. 9 



48.8 

 -9. 1 



46. 8 

 -11. 1 



66. 5 

 5.6 

 6. 5 



65. 6 



50. 9 

 -14.7 



47. 4 

 -18. 2 



72. 6 

 5.6 

 6.4 



71.8 



54. 2 

 -17.6 



47. 

 -24. 8 



51. 5 

 5. 6 

 8.9 



48. 2 



48. 8 

 + 0.6 



48. 

 -0. 2 



54. 1 



5. 6 



10.8 



48.9 



50.9 

 + 1.0 



49. 6 

 -0. 7 



55. 



5. 5 



11.4 



49. 1 



54. 2 



+ 5. 1 



51.0 



+ 1.9 



48. 7 

 5.6 

 9.6 



44. 7 



48. 8 

 + 4.1 



50. 8 



+ 6. 1 



+ 1.6 



+ 7. 7 



55.8 



5. 6 



10.8 



50. 6 



50. 9 

 + 0. 3 



50. 

 -0. 6 



+ 2.7 

 + 2. 1 



61. 9 



5. 6 



10. 8 



56. 7 



54. 2 

 -2.5 



48.6 



-8. 1 



+ 4.7 

 -3.4 



1 Data for 1952, 1962, and 1970 are estimates of actual 

 consumption and harvests and differ somewhat from the 

 "trend" estimates shown in Chapter II. 



2 Relative prices rising from their 1970 trend levels as 

 follows: lumber — 1.5 percent per year; plywood, mis- 

 cellaneous products and fuelwood — 1.0 percent per year; 

 paper and board — 0.5 percent per year. This would mean 

 a cumulative increase of 62 percent for lumber by the year 

 2000, and 17 percent for paper and board. 



3 Relative prices of lumber and plywood 30 percent, 

 miscellaneous products and fuelwood 15 percent, and 

 paper and board 10 percent above their 1970 averages. 



* Base projections of supply are defined in Chapter II 

 as the amounts of timber that would be available for 

 harvesting if: (1) forestry programs continued at 1970 

 levels, (2) timber removals in the East changed on a 

 straight line basis from actual removals in 1970 to a 

 balance with growth in the year 2000 and thereafter, (3) 

 removals on private lands in the West followed trends 

 suggested by recent management and operating practices, 

 and allowable cuts on public lands remained at the 1970 

 level. 



5 Projections of supply related to alternative price 

 levels, and 1970 level of management, with some adjust- 

 ments for recent environmental constraints on National 

 Forests harvests. 



6 Increases on supply from a program of $69 million 

 annually for commercial thinnings, planting, and timber 

 stand improvement on areas of nonindustrial private and 

 National Forest lands that will yield more than 5 percent 

 return on investments. Supplies could be further increased 

 with other investment criteria, investments in other 

 management or utilization opportunities, or investments 

 on other ownerships. 



Note: Data may not add to totals because of rounding. 



Sources: Data for 1952, 1962, and 1970 based on in- 

 formation published by the U.S. Departments of Com- 

 merce and Agriculture. 



Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

 Service. 



An equilibrium price path cannot be deter- 

 mined with any exactness, but under the specific 

 conditions assumed in Chapters II and V, trend 

 level prices of softwood lumber' and plywood 

 (relative to the general price level) by 1980 might 

 average roughly 20-25 percent above 1970, with 



an increase of roughly 50-60 percent by the year 

 2000. 



The indicated price path for softwood lumber 

 that appears likely under these specific conditions 

 would be generally consistent with price trends of 

 prior decades when supplies and demands for 



