TIMBER DEMAND-SUPPLY RELATIONSHIPS 



217 



1\ble 156 —Summary of hardwood timber demand, exports, imports and demand on and supply from U.S. 

 ' forests ' 1952 1962 and 1970, with projections to 2000 (medium level) under alternative price assumptions 

 'and 1970 level oj management ^^ ^^ ^ 



Item 



Total U.S. demand 



Exports 



Imports 



Demand on U.S. forests 



Supply from U.S. forests — base 

 projections 5 



Supply-demand balance. __ 



1952 1 



3.5 



( 4 ) 

 . 1 

 3.5 



3.5 



1962' 



3. 1 

 . 1 

 . 2 



3.0 



3.0 



1970 1 



Projections 



1970 relative 

 prices 



1980 



3. 4. 3 



.2 .2 



3 .4 



2. 9 4. 1 



2.9 



5. 2 

 + 1. 1 



1990 



5. •) 

 . 2 

 .4 



5. 3 



6.3 

 -1.0 



2 



7.0 

 . 2 

 . 4 



6.8 



7.4 

 0.6 



Rising relative 

 prices 2 



1980 



4.0 

 . 2 

 . 5 



3. 7 



5.2 

 + 1.5 



1990 



4. 7 

 . 2 

 . 5 



4.4 



6.3 

 + 1.9 



2000 



5.7 

 . 2 

 . 6 



5.3 



7.4 

 +2. 1 



Relative prices 



above 1970 



averages 3 



1980 



3.9 

 . 2 

 . 6 



3. 5 



5.2 

 + 1.7 



1990 



4.9 

 . 2 

 . 6 



4. 5 



6.3 



- 1. 8 



2000 



6.4 

 . 2 

 .6 



6.0 



7.4 

 + 1.4 



BILLIOX BOARD FEET, INTERNATIONAL tf-INCH LOG RULE 



Total U.S. demand 



Exports 



Imports 



Demand on U.S. forests 



Supply from U.S. forests — base 

 projections 5 



Supply-demand balance 



11.6 

 .2 

 . 3 



11. 5 



11.5 



11.7 



.2 



1.0 



10.9 



10 9 



12. 3 



. 2 



1.3 



11.2 



11.2 



16.3 



2 



2. 



14. 5 



15. 5 

 1.0 



20. 3 

 .2 



2.0 

 18. 5 



18.2 

 -0.3 



24. 3 



.2 



2.0 



22. 5 



20. 6 

 -1.9 



14. 5 

 .2 



2.0 

 12. 7 



15. 5 



+ 2.8 



16. 7 



.2 



2.3 



14. 6 



18.2 

 + 3. 6 



19. 1 

 . 2 



2.7 

 16. 6 



20. 6 

 + 4.0 



14. 

 .2 



2.4 

 11.8 



15. 5 



+ 3. 7 



17.4 



.2 



2.4 



15. 2 



18.2 

 + 3.0 



21. 1 



.2 



2. 4 



18.9 



20.6 

 + 1.7 



1 Data for 1952, 1962, and 1970 are estimates of actual 

 consumption and harvests and differ somewhat from the 

 "trend" estimates shown in Chapter II. 



3 Relative prices rising from their 1970 trend levels as 

 follows: lumber— 1.5 percent per year; plywood, miscel- 

 laneous products and fuel wood — 1.0 percent per year; 

 paper and board — 0.5 percent per year. 



3 Relative prices of lumber and plywood 30 percent, 

 miscellaneous products and fuelwood 15 percent, and paper 

 and board 10 percent above their 1970 averages. 



4 Less than 50 million cubic feet. 



5 Base projections of supply are defined in Chapter II 

 as the amount of timber that would be available for 

 harvesting if: (1) forestrv programs continued at 1970 

 levels, (2) timber removals in the East changed on a 



softwood lumber were balanced at successively 

 higher relative prices that increased an average of 

 1.7 percent annually. 



Projected trends in such equilibrium prices 

 for different timber products also differ as in the 

 past. Thus, in contrast to a possible increase 

 of 50-60 percent in prices of softwood lumber 

 and plywood by 2000, under the conditions 

 specified in this analysis relative prices of paper 

 and board might be no more than 15-20 percent 

 above 1970 prices. Greater increases in prices 

 may be necessary in the pulp and paper industry, 

 however, to attract the capital required to meet 

 projected demands. 



Stumpage price increases also could be expected 

 to be considerably greater on a percentage basis 

 than increases in equilibrium prices of processed 

 products such as lumber. According to past 



straight-line basis from actual removals in 1970 to a 

 balance with growth in the year 2000 and thereafter, 

 (3) removals on private lands in the West followed trends 

 suggested by recent management and operating practice-. 

 and allowable cuts on public lands remained at the 1970 

 level. 



Note: Data may not add to totals because of rounding. 



Sources: Data for 1952, 1962, and 1970 based on infor- 

 mation published by the U.S. Departments of Commerce 

 and Agriculture. 



Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

 Service. 



relationships such as described in Chapter \ . 

 an increase of 50-60 percent in softwood lumber 

 and plywood prices, for example, would result in an 

 average increase of over 100 percent in relative 

 average prices of softwood sawtimber stumpage. 



Projection alternatives. — In view of the many 

 uncertainties involved in both demand and 

 supply projections, estimates of prices at which 

 supply and demand might be balanced must be 

 regarded as very general approximations that 

 would only be realized under the assumed con- 

 ditions underlying these specific projections. 



Manv factors could, of course, lead to different 

 price paths than indicated by this analysis. 

 These include different rates of economic growth, 

 different trends in technology, or different demand 

 elasticities than specified in Chapter \ , with 

 consequent changes in demand projections. 



