220 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES; 



managment and thus should encourage more 

 investments in timber growing and expansion of 

 public forestry programs. This would help increase 

 timber supplies although, as pointed out in 

 Chapter III, these are largely long-range solutions 

 to problems of timber supply. 



Prospective trends in timber availability also 

 point to changes in the geographic location of 

 timber industries. A continuing drop in softwood 

 timber supplies in the West can be expected, as 

 shown in Chapter II, while a substantial expansion 

 of timber supplies and wood-based industries is 

 anticipated in the South. 



DEPENDENCE ON NET IMPORTS OF TIMBER 



The estimates of timber demands and supplies 

 summarized in tables 155 and 156 include sig- 

 nificant volumes of both imports and exports of 

 timber products, both in 1970 and in the projection 

 period. Net imports are assumed to increase from 

 8 percent of U.S. consumption in 1970 to about 

 15 percent of projected demands in 2000 under the 

 assumption of "rising" timber prices. 



Potentials for increases in net imports of timber 

 products beyond amounts assumed in this analysis 

 appear to be limited, both by physical availability 

 of timber supplies from other countries and by 

 economic and political factors. Not the least of the 

 potential problems involved in greater dependence 

 on net imports would be the increased need for 

 foreign exchange and resulting adverse impacts on 

 the U.S. balance of payments position. 



ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 

 OF RISING TIMBER PRICES 



If timber supplies are insufficient to meet 

 growing demands for lumber, plywood, and other 

 wood products, builders and other users of these 

 materials can shift many demands to competing 

 materials such as metals, plastics, and concrete. 

 Considerable substitution of this nature has, 

 of course, occurred in the past with increasing 

 relative prices of lumber. Mineral-based products 

 and steel have made heavy inroads in many 

 traditional wood uses in construction, for example, 

 while plastics have been increasingly used for 

 such items as boats, furniture, and packaging. 



Higher prices of timber products and a shift 

 to greater use of competitive materials will lead, 

 however, to increased costs of houses, furniture, 

 and many other goods. Although total and per 

 capita incomes are assumed to increase sub- 

 stantially, higher materials costs would neces- 

 sarily have some adverse impacts on volumes 

 and quality of housing production, for example, 

 and thus on consumer welfare. 



Continuing shifts to other raw materials neces- 

 sitated by limited timber supplies could also 

 increase adverse industrial impacts on the environ- 



ment. The air, water, and land pollution resulting 

 from production of substitute materials such as 

 steel, concrete products, and aluminum is of 

 greater magnitude than in the case of timber 

 products such as lumber and plywood. In many 

 cases such impacts apparently can be reduced 

 to acceptable levels but the expenditures neces- 

 sary to control pollution will tend to increase 

 costs of these materials. 



Energy requirements and costs of processing 

 competing materials also are much higher than 

 for timber products. It is estimated that use of 

 steel framing for exterior walls in residential 

 construction, for example, requires over three 

 times the amount of processing energy needed to 

 produce lumber for comparable installations. 1 

 For aluminum and concrete blocks, energy 

 requirements are estimated to average more 

 than eight times the requirements for lumber. 

 There are likewise substantial differences in 

 typical heating and cooling costs with alternative 

 materials that favor use of wood products in 

 housing construction. 2 



While such estimates cannot be viewed as exact 

 measures of energy requirements because of varia- 

 tions in structures, building practices, and other 

 factors, differences in use of energy as well as 

 relative pollution impacts are believed to be of 

 considerable significance in evaluating the future 

 situation and in developing programs to assure 

 future raw material supplies. 3 



1 Dane, C. W. Energy requirements for wood and wood 

 substitutes and the "energy crises." USD A Forest Serv., 

 Forest Econ. and Market. Res., 17 p. Processed. 1972. 



2 National Forest Products Association. The energy 

 conservation issue — how wood helps reduce power con- 

 sumption and home operating costs. Washington, D.C. 

 1972. 



3 For further discussion of these points, see: 



Dane, C. W. The price outlook of steel products substi- 

 tutable for wood. USDA Forest Serv., Forest Econ. and 

 Market. Res., 38 p. Processed. 1972. 



The long-term price outlook for concrete products 



that are substitutable for wood. USDA Forest Serv., 

 Forest Econ. and Market. Res., 39 p. Processed. 1972. 



The long-term price outlook for aluminum 



products substitutable for wood. USDA Forest Serv., 

 Forest Econ. and Market. Res., 43 p. Processed. 1972. 



Energy requirements for wood and wood sub- 

 stitutes and the "energy crises." USDA Forest Serv., 

 Forest Econ. and Market. Res., 17 p. Processed. 1972. 



The hidden environmental costs of alternative 



materials available for residential construction. USDA 

 Forest Serv., Forest Econ. and Market. Res., 14 p. Proc- 

 essed. 1972. 



Haygreen, John G. Wood products an uncertain future. 

 Minnesota Forest Products Marketing Bui. 15(2) :l-3. 

 June 1972. 



Saeman, Jerome F. The wood resource and the environ- 

 ment — some national options and alternatives. USDA 

 Forest Serv., Forest Prod. Lab. 1970. 



Vaux, Henrv J. Continuing education for a changing 

 environment. Univ. of California, School of Forestry and 

 Conservation. Berkeley. June 1972. 



Zivnuska, John A. Will wood products be cheap or ex- 

 pensive? Seventh World Forestry Congress, Argentina. 

 Oct. 1972. 



