PUBLICATIONS CITED 



Abbey, Helen. An examination of the Reed-Frost theory 

 of epidemics. Human Biol. 24: 201-233; 1952. 



Amman, Gene D. Insects affecting lodgepole pine pro- 

 ductivity. In: Baumgartner, David M., ed. Manage- 

 ment of lodgepole pine ecosystems: symposium, pro- 

 ceedings; 1973 October 9-11; PuUman, WA. Pullman, 

 WA: Washington State University, Cooperative Ex- 

 tension Service; 1975: 310-341. 



Amman, Gene D.; McGregor, Mark D.; CahiU, Donn B.; 

 Klein, William H. Guidelines for reducing losses of 

 lodgepole pine to the mountain pine beetle in un- 

 managed stands in the Rocky Mountains. Gen. Tech. 

 Rep. INT-36. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of 

 Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and 

 Range Experiment Station; 1977. 19 p. 



Bailey, Norman T. J. The mathematical theory of 



epidemics. New York: Hafner Pubhshing; 1957. 194 p. 



Bousfield, Wayne E. R-1 forest insect and disease 

 damage survey system. Report 79-2 (rev.). Missoula, 

 MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

 Northern Region; 1981. 12 p. 



Brohman, R.; BrickeU, J.; McGregor, M. Development of . . 

 mountain pine beetle coefficients to adjust the Helena 

 National Forest timber yield tables. Paper presented 

 at Western Forest Insect Work Conference; Missoula, 

 MT; 1982. 12 p. 



BurneU, D. G. A dispersal-aggregation model for moim- 

 tain pine beetle in lodgepole pine stands. Res. Popul. 

 Ecol. 19: 99-106; 1977. 



Cole, Walter E.; CaMU, Donn B. Cutting Strategies can 

 reduce probabiUties of mountain pine beetle epidemics 

 in lodgepole pine. J. For. 74: 294-297; 1976. 



DUworth, J. R.; Bell, J. F. Variable plot cruising. Cor- 

 vaUis, OR: Oregon State University; 1969. 130 p. 



Greenwood, M. On the statistical measure of infec- 

 tiousness. J. Hyg. Cambridge. 31. 336-351; 1931. 



Johnson, Norman E.; Jones, Daniel B.; Kent, Brian M. 

 Forest planning model (FORPLAN). User's guide and 

 operations manual. Fort CoUins, CO: U.S. Department 

 of Agriculture. Forest Service; 1980. 258 p. 



Klein, William H.; Parker, Douglas L.; Jensen, Chester 

 E. Attack, emergence, and stand depletion trends of 

 the mountain pine beetle in a lodgepole pine stand dur- 

 ing an outbreak. Environ. Entomol. 7: 732-737: 1978. 



McGregor, Mark D. The current situation of the moun- 

 tain pine beetle in the United States and resources in- 

 volved. In: Shrimpton, D. M., ed. Proceedings of the 

 joint Canaday'USA workshop on moimtain pine beetle 

 related problems in western North America; 1981 

 November 3-4; Fairmont Hot Springs, BC. BC-X-230. 

 Victoria, BC: Environment Canada. Canadian Forestry 

 Service, Pacific Forest Research Centre; 1982: 16-21 



McGregor, Mark D.; Gibson, Kenneth E.; Oakes, Robert 

 D. Status of mountain pine beetle infestations, 

 Flathead Hational Foret and other portions of 



Montana. Rep. 82-6. Missoula, Mt: U.S. Department of 

 Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Region, 

 Cooperative Forestry and Pest Management; 

 1982. 20 p. 



Roe, Arthur L.; Amman, Gene D. The movmtain pine 

 beetle in lodgepole pine forests. Res. Pap. INT-71. 

 Ogden, UT; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

 Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment 

 Station; 197], 23 p. 



Safranyik, L. Alternative solutions— preventive manage- 

 ment and direct control. In: Shrimpton, D. M., ed. Pro- 

 ceedings of the joint Canada USA workshop on moun- 

 tin pine beetle related problems in western North 

 America; 1981 November 3-4; Fairmont Hot Springs, 

 BC' BC-X-230. Victoria, BC: Environment Canada, 

 Canadian Forestry Service, Pacific Forest Research 

 Centre; 1982: 29-32. 



Cole. Walter E.: McGregor. Mark D. Estimating the rate and amount of tree loss 

 from mountain pine beetle infestations. Res. Pap, INT-318. Ogden. UT: U.S. 

 Department of Agriculture. Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Ex- 

 periment Station; 1983. 22 p. 



Forest managers have less than a 50 percent chance of growing lodgepole 

 pine to 16-inch diameters in unmanaged stands because of recurrent depreda- 

 tion from the mountain pine beetle. Hazard rating methods provide techniques 

 for managers to identify susceptible stands. The Rate of Loss Model refines ex- 

 isting risk rating systems, and provides a method for predicting tree and volume 

 loss by habitat types. This model is provided to assist land managers in projec- 

 ting tree mortality over time, and as a link with the FORPLAN Model for use in 

 forest planning. 



KEYWORDS: Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, risk 

 rating model, lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta var. latifolia. forest 

 planning 



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