CONTENTS 



Page 



INTRODUCTION 1 



PROPERTIES OF MORTALITY MODELS 2 



DATA REQUIREMENTS FOR MORTALITY MODELING ... 3 



Data Used in This Study 3 



MODELING METHODS 4 



Data Screening 4 



Parameter Estimation 5 



Model Verification 10 



MORTALITY PREDICTION FOR NORTH IDAHO SPECIES . 12 



PUBLICATIONS CITED 15 



APPENDIX: Instructions for Estimating Percent Defect. . . 17 



ABSTRACT 



This paper describes procedures for developing and testing 

 models that predict the probability of individual tree mortality. 

 The modeling procedures include data screening, parameter 

 estimation, and model verification techniques that have been 

 designed to deal with dichotomous dependent variables. To 

 demonstrate the procedures, mortality models for 10 north Idaho 

 species are developed and verified. 



