﻿RELATING 
  PAST 
  ATTENDANCE 
  TO 
  THE 
  FUTURE 
  

  

  Increases 
  in 
  population, 
  disposable 
  income, 
  and 
  leisure 
  time 
  between 
  the 
  

   1955-56 
  and 
  1963-64 
  skiing 
  seasons 
  have 
  all 
  been 
  closely 
  associated 
  with 
  increases 
  

   of 
  total 
  annual 
  skier 
  attendance. 
  This 
  relation 
  can 
  be 
  expressed 
  mathematically 
  as 
  

   shown 
  in 
  the 
  formula 
  below: 
  

  

  These 
  independent 
  variables 
  account 
  for 
  95 
  percent 
  of 
  the 
  variations 
  of 
  total 
  

   annual 
  skier 
  attendance 
  between 
  the 
  1955-56 
  and 
  1963-64 
  seasons. 
  

  

  Using 
  the 
  values 
  for 
  X^, 
  X^, 
  and 
  X3 
  estimated 
  for 
  1976 
  by 
  the 
  Outdoor 
  Recre- 
  

   ation 
  Resources 
  Review 
  Commission,"''^ 
  future 
  skier 
  attendance 
  can 
  be 
  projected 
  for 
  

   that 
  year. 
  Regression 
  analysis 
  of 
  the 
  past 
  relationship 
  between 
  skier 
  attendance 
  

   and 
  these 
  three 
  factors 
  indicates 
  that 
  12, 
  1 
  million 
  skier 
  visits 
  may 
  be 
  expected 
  by 
  

   1976. 
  

  

  This 
  is 
  based 
  on 
  the 
  assumption 
  that 
  today's 
  conditions 
  of 
  peace 
  and 
  prosperity 
  

   will 
  continue. 
  An 
  economic 
  recession, 
  for 
  example, 
  would 
  undoubtedly 
  reduce 
  the 
  

   amount 
  of 
  skiing 
  below 
  the 
  projected 
  figure 
  (see 
  table 
  14) 
  . 
  

  

  Outdoor 
  Recreation 
  Resources 
  Review 
  Commission. 
  Prospective 
  demand 
  for 
  

   outdoor 
  recreation. 
  Study 
  Rep. 
  26, 
  p. 
  6. 
  Wash. 
  D.C.: 
  U.S. 
  Govt. 
  Printing 
  Office 
  . 
  

   1962. 
  

  

  Y 
  

  

  6045.603 
  + 
  347.35926X1 
  + 
  5901.3576X2 
  - 
  534.634X3 
  

  

  where 
  

  

  Y 
  

  

  Skier 
  attendance 
  in 
  thousands 
  of 
  visits 
  

   Population 
  of 
  Western 
  States 
  in 
  millions 
  of 
  persons 
  

   Per 
  capita 
  income 
  of 
  U.S. 
  in 
  thousands 
  of 
  1960 
  dollars 
  

   Leisure 
  hours 
  per 
  week 
  per 
  worker. 
  

  

  47 
  

  

  