﻿THE 
  FUTURE 
  OF 
  SKIING 
  IN 
  THE 
  WEST 
  

  

  Available 
  evidence 
  indicates 
  that 
  western 
  skiing 
  will 
  grow 
  rapidly 
  during 
  the 
  next 
  

   decade. 
  There 
  is, 
  however, 
  considerable 
  doL±)t 
  that 
  it 
  can 
  continue 
  to 
  expand 
  at 
  a 
  rate 
  

   equal 
  to 
  that 
  of 
  the 
  past 
  few 
  years 
  . 
  

  

  Ski 
  area 
  attendance 
  data 
  assembled 
  for 
  this 
  study 
  confirm 
  what 
  many 
  have 
  sur- 
  

   mised: 
  participation 
  has 
  grown 
  rapidly 
  since 
  1955. 
  Except 
  for 
  the 
  winter 
  of 
  1962-63 
  

   when 
  insufficient 
  snow 
  drastically 
  curtailed 
  the 
  length 
  of 
  the 
  season, 
  total 
  ski 
  area 
  

   attendance 
  has 
  increased 
  every 
  year. 
  Annual 
  attendance 
  has 
  grown 
  at 
  an 
  average 
  an- 
  

   nual 
  compound 
  rate 
  of 
  15.4 
  percent- 
  -from 
  1.4 
  million 
  visits 
  in 
  1956 
  to 
  4.3 
  million 
  

   visits 
  in 
  1964. 
  Moreover, 
  the 
  growth 
  rate, 
  which 
  averaged 
  12.8 
  percent 
  between 
  1955 
  

   and 
  1960, 
  accelerated 
  to 
  19.9 
  percent 
  after 
  1960. 
  

  

  Besides 
  sketching 
  a 
  historical 
  profile 
  of 
  the 
  western 
  ski 
  industry, 
  these 
  data 
  yield 
  

   meaningful 
  clues 
  concerning 
  the 
  dimensions 
  of 
  its 
  future. 
  The 
  use 
  of 
  these 
  data, 
  how- 
  

   ever, 
  is 
  appropriately 
  limited 
  to 
  projecting 
  the 
  trend 
  for 
  the 
  short-term 
  future 
  because 
  

   the 
  data 
  are 
  based 
  on 
  a 
  relatively 
  short 
  period. 
  

  

  By 
  assuming 
  that 
  past 
  attendance 
  growth 
  rates 
  will 
  prevail 
  during 
  the 
  years 
  im- 
  

   mediately 
  ahead, 
  the 
  following 
  estimates 
  for 
  1976 
  may 
  be 
  made: 
  (1) 
  20.4 
  million 
  visits 
  

   based 
  upon 
  the 
  12.8 
  percent 
  rate; 
  (2) 
  45.1 
  million 
  visits 
  based 
  on 
  the 
  19.9 
  percent 
  rate; 
  

   and 
  (3) 
  27.5 
  million 
  visits 
  based 
  on 
  the 
  15.4 
  percent 
  rate. 
  

  

  This 
  broad 
  range 
  in 
  estimated 
  future 
  visits 
  --20 
  to 
  45 
  million- 
  -emphasizes 
  that 
  a 
  

   simple 
  extension 
  of 
  past 
  trends 
  involves 
  fundamental 
  hazards. 
  Such 
  extensions 
  of 
  num- 
  

   bers 
  alone 
  do 
  not 
  take 
  into 
  account 
  the 
  underlying 
  factors 
  responsible 
  for 
  past 
  growth. 
  

   Since 
  1955 
  the 
  annual 
  increase 
  in 
  number 
  of 
  visits 
  to 
  western 
  ski 
  areas 
  has 
  been 
  close- 
  

   ly 
  related 
  to 
  annual 
  increases 
  in 
  population 
  size, 
  per 
  capita 
  income, 
  and 
  amount 
  of 
  

  

  y 
  

  

  leisure 
  time. 
  Although 
  these 
  three 
  factors 
  don't 
  explain 
  why 
  people 
  ski, 
  their 
  asso- 
  

   ciation 
  with 
  increased 
  ski 
  area 
  attendance 
  seems 
  logical; 
  specifically, 
  a 
  greater 
  pro- 
  

   portion 
  of 
  an 
  increasing 
  population 
  will 
  have 
  both 
  the 
  money 
  and 
  the 
  time 
  to 
  go 
  skiing 
  

   if 
  they 
  so 
  choose. 
  

  

  age 
  annual 
  rate 
  of 
  8.3 
  percent. 
  This 
  rate 
  is 
  lower 
  than 
  those 
  experienced 
  in 
  the 
  past. 
  

   There 
  already 
  is 
  some 
  evidence 
  that 
  construction 
  of 
  new 
  lifts 
  is 
  slowing 
  down. 
  Ski 
  

   Magazine 
  has 
  reported 
  that 
  sharp 
  cutbacks 
  in 
  such 
  construction 
  of 
  Lift 
  facilities 
  have 
  

   occurred 
  since 
  1964.® 
  

  

  See 
  page 
  47 
  for 
  details 
  . 
  

  

  Ski 
  Magazine, 
  November 
  20, 
  1966, 
  p. 
  27. 
  

  

  12.1 
  million 
  visits 
  

   anticipated 
  in 
  

   1976 
  

  

  If 
  it 
  is 
  assumed 
  that 
  these 
  three 
  factors 
  will 
  continue 
  to 
  have 
  

   about 
  the 
  same 
  relationship 
  with 
  attendance 
  in 
  the 
  future, 
  12.1 
  

   million 
  visits 
  can 
  be 
  anticipated 
  in 
  1976. 
  This 
  would 
  mean 
  that 
  

   the 
  4.3 
  million 
  visits 
  recorded 
  for 
  1964 
  will 
  increase 
  at 
  an 
  aver- 
  

  

  11 
  

  

  