﻿the 
  manager 
  in 
  this 
  case 
  would 
  no 
  doubt 
  

   choose 
  plan 
  B 
  regardless 
  of 
  the 
  time 
  period 
  

   involved. 
  

  

  With 
  thoughtful 
  screening 
  of 
  species, 
  real- 
  

   istic 
  cost 
  and 
  value 
  yield 
  estimates 
  based 
  on 
  

   the 
  best 
  data 
  available, 
  and 
  full 
  use 
  of 
  the 
  

   speed 
  and 
  convenience 
  of 
  modern 
  EDP 
  equip- 
  

   ment, 
  economic 
  evaluation 
  of 
  alternatives 
  can 
  

  

  be 
  made 
  more 
  easily 
  and 
  with 
  more 
  consis- 
  

   tency 
  than 
  ever 
  before. 
  Once 
  he 
  has 
  these 
  

   evaluations, 
  the 
  timber 
  manager 
  is 
  in 
  a 
  good 
  

   position 
  to 
  make 
  sound 
  decisions 
  about 
  par- 
  

   ticular 
  timber 
  growing 
  projects 
  because 
  he 
  is 
  

   able 
  to 
  judge 
  the 
  effectiveness 
  with 
  which 
  

   money 
  and 
  land 
  are 
  combined 
  to 
  reach 
  timber 
  

   production 
  goals. 
  

  

  SUMMARY 
  

  

  The 
  3.5 
  million 
  acres 
  of 
  National 
  Forest 
  

   land 
  in 
  the 
  Northern 
  Rocky 
  Mountain 
  area 
  

   that 
  are 
  capable 
  of 
  growing 
  western 
  white 
  pine 
  

   are 
  also 
  highly 
  productive 
  for 
  growing 
  a 
  num- 
  

   ber 
  of 
  other 
  species. 
  

  

  Lack 
  of 
  a 
  means 
  to 
  suppress 
  blister 
  rust 
  

   makes 
  it 
  imperative 
  that 
  other 
  species 
  be 
  

   substituted 
  for 
  white 
  pine 
  at 
  the 
  present 
  time. 
  

   Also, 
  if 
  public 
  agencies 
  are 
  to 
  use 
  their 
  money 
  

   efficiently, 
  economic 
  evaluations 
  of 
  species 
  al- 
  

   ternatives 
  are 
  necessary. 
  The 
  species 
  choice 
  

   for 
  timber 
  production 
  is 
  determined 
  by 
  the 
  ca- 
  

   pacity 
  of 
  the 
  site 
  to 
  grow 
  various 
  species 
  and 
  

   the 
  degree 
  of 
  efficiency 
  with 
  which 
  each 
  

   species 
  may 
  be 
  used 
  to 
  attain 
  the 
  timber 
  

   production 
  goal 
  or 
  objective. 
  Rate 
  of 
  return 
  

   on 
  the 
  tree-growing 
  investments 
  is 
  the 
  most 
  

   useful 
  measure 
  of 
  efficiency. 
  

  

  The 
  real 
  species 
  alternatives 
  to 
  evaluate 
  are 
  

   those 
  judged 
  to 
  have 
  the 
  best 
  chance 
  of 
  pro- 
  

   ducing 
  a 
  merchantable 
  stand. 
  As 
  a 
  hedge 
  

   against 
  unknown 
  future 
  losses 
  of 
  any 
  given 
  

   species 
  from 
  insects 
  and 
  disease, 
  mixed 
  species 
  

   stands 
  should 
  be 
  the 
  rule. 
  

  

  Choice 
  of 
  species 
  mixtures 
  to 
  regenerate 
  for 
  

   timber 
  production 
  can 
  be 
  based 
  on 
  the 
  fol- 
  

   lowing 
  evaluation: 
  

  

  1. 
  Determine 
  the 
  species 
  biologically 
  best 
  

  

  suited 
  to 
  the 
  area 
  to 
  be 
  regenerated. 
  This 
  

   calls 
  for 
  a 
  determination 
  of 
  habitat 
  type 
  and 
  

   a 
  close 
  examination 
  of 
  the 
  species 
  present 
  and 
  

   thriving 
  in 
  the 
  stand 
  to 
  be 
  harvested. 
  

  

  2. 
  Eliminate 
  from 
  consideration 
  those 
  

   species 
  thought 
  to 
  be 
  the 
  poorest 
  risks 
  because 
  

   of 
  current 
  disease 
  or 
  insect 
  problems, 
  or 
  other 
  

   obvious 
  disadvantages. 
  

  

  3. 
  Estimate 
  the 
  costs 
  necessary 
  to 
  estab- 
  

   lish 
  a 
  satisfactory 
  stand 
  of 
  the 
  alternative 
  

   species 
  and 
  to 
  manage 
  it 
  at 
  a 
  specified 
  level 
  

   until 
  harvest. 
  

  

  4. 
  Estimate 
  the 
  intermediate 
  and 
  harvest 
  

   yields 
  likely 
  from 
  the 
  level 
  of 
  management 
  

   prescribed. 
  

  

  5. 
  Estimate 
  the 
  values 
  of 
  these 
  yields. 
  

  

  6. 
  Compute 
  the 
  alternative 
  rate 
  of 
  return 
  

   (interest 
  rate) 
  from 
  estimated 
  value 
  yield 
  and 
  

   costs 
  of 
  the 
  timber 
  growing 
  operation. 
  

  

  For 
  effective 
  use 
  of 
  such 
  evaluations, 
  (1) 
  

   only 
  practical 
  alternatives 
  should 
  be 
  evalu- 
  

   ated, 
  (2) 
  the 
  most 
  reliable 
  information 
  avail- 
  

   able 
  should 
  be 
  used, 
  and 
  (3) 
  each 
  area 
  to 
  be 
  

   regenerated 
  should 
  be 
  considered 
  within 
  the 
  

   framework 
  of 
  its 
  own 
  peculiarities 
  and 
  condi- 
  

   tions. 
  

  

  20 
  

  

  