﻿Costs: 
  

  

  Site 
  preparation 
  $11 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  0 
  

   Planting 
  $25 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  1 
  

  

  Thinning 
  at 
  age 
  15 
  $20 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  18 
  

   Returns: 
  Value 
  of 
  stand 
  at 
  age 
  56 
  

   Spruce 
  

  

  2,750 
  cu. 
  ft, 
  at 
  $0.05 
  $137.50 
  

   Grand 
  fir 
  

  

  2,200 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.07 
  154.00 
  

  

  Total 
  

  

  $291.50 
  

  

  This 
  information 
  when 
  recorded 
  for 
  machine 
  

   use 
  would 
  appear 
  as 
  in 
  figure 
  4 
  if 
  Hall's 
  pro- 
  

   gram 
  is 
  used. 
  The 
  information 
  on 
  each 
  line 
  

   represents 
  one 
  card 
  to 
  be 
  used 
  in 
  the 
  program. 
  

   (Detailed 
  instructions 
  for 
  recording 
  informa- 
  

   tion 
  to 
  be 
  used 
  in 
  this 
  program 
  are 
  given 
  in 
  

   appendix 
  B.) 
  The 
  output 
  (figure 
  5) 
  from 
  

   the 
  investment 
  analysis 
  prints 
  out 
  the 
  details 
  

   of 
  the 
  alternative 
  plans, 
  the 
  name 
  of 
  the 
  

   Forest 
  submitting 
  the 
  problem, 
  the 
  person 
  to 
  

   whom 
  the 
  output 
  is 
  to 
  be 
  sent, 
  the 
  name 
  of 
  

   the 
  project, 
  and 
  the 
  rate 
  of 
  return 
  on 
  the 
  

   investment 
  relative 
  to 
  the 
  estimates 
  of 
  value 
  

   yields 
  provided. 
  The 
  rate 
  of 
  return 
  for 
  the 
  

   plan 
  analyzed 
  is 
  the 
  last 
  rate 
  printed 
  in 
  the 
  

   list 
  of 
  trials 
  produced 
  by 
  the 
  computer. 
  

  

  Long 
  Investment 
  Period 
  

   Plan 
  A 
  

  

  Clearcut 
  in 
  small 
  blocks 
  of 
  20 
  acres 
  and 
  

   regenerate 
  naturally 
  to 
  Douglas-fir, 
  grand 
  fir, 
  

   and 
  spruce. 
  

  

  Costs: 
  

  

  Seed 
  source 
  $3 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  0 
  

  

  Site 
  preparation 
  $15 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  1 
  

   Thinning 
  at 
  age 
  15 
  $35 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  18 
  

   Returns: 
  Intermediate 
  cut 
  at 
  year 
  60 
  

   Douglas-fir 
  

  

  972 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.06 
  $58.32 
  

   Spruce 
  

  

  324 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.05 
  16.20 
  

   Grand 
  fir 
  

  

  324 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.07 
  22.68 
  

  

  Total 
  

  

  Harvest 
  cut 
  at 
  year 
  113 
  

   Douglas-fir 
  

  

  5,160 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.06 
  

  

  $97.20 
  

  

  $309.60 
  

  

  Spruce 
  

  

  1,220 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.05 
  

   Grand 
  fir 
  

  

  1,220 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.07 
  

  

  Total 
  

  

  61.00 
  

  

  85.40 
  

   $456.00 
  

  

  Plan 
  B 
  

  

  Clearcut 
  in 
  large 
  block 
  of 
  100 
  acres 
  and 
  

   regenerate 
  by 
  planting 
  mostly 
  grand 
  fir 
  and 
  

   spruce 
  with 
  some 
  Douglas-fir 
  seeding 
  in. 
  

  

  Costs: 
  

  

  Site 
  preparation 
  $11 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  0 
  

   Planting 
  $25 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  1 
  

  

  Thinning 
  at 
  age 
  15 
  $20 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  16 
  

   Returns: 
  Intermediate 
  cut 
  at 
  year 
  60 
  

   Spruce 
  

  

  1,215 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.05 
  $ 
  60.75 
  

  

  Grand 
  fir 
  

  

  1,215 
  cu. 
  ft, 
  at 
  $0.07 
  85.05 
  

  

  Total 
  

  

  Harvest 
  cut 
  at 
  year 
  100 
  

   Spruce 
  

  

  3,800 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.05 
  

   Grand 
  fir 
  

  

  3,200 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.07 
  

  

  Total 
  

  

  $145.80 
  

  

  $190.00 
  

  

  224.00 
  

   $414.00 
  

  

  This 
  information 
  on 
  the 
  input 
  data 
  form 
  

   would 
  appear 
  as 
  in 
  figure 
  6, 
  and 
  the 
  output 
  

   as 
  in 
  figure 
  7. 
  

  

  The 
  rates 
  of 
  return 
  (percent 
  interest) 
  cal- 
  

   culated 
  by 
  the 
  computer 
  for 
  the 
  four 
  alterna- 
  

   tives 
  are 
  as 
  follows: 
  

  

  Short 
  investment 
  period: 
  plan 
  A, 
  2.95; 
  

   plan 
  B, 
  3.30 
  

  

  Long 
  investment 
  period: 
  plan 
  A, 
  2.79; 
  

   plan 
  B, 
  2.95 
  

  

  Under 
  the 
  assumptions 
  used, 
  planting 
  large 
  

   clearcut 
  blocks 
  costs 
  less 
  and 
  yields 
  more 
  than 
  

   regenerating 
  naturally 
  in 
  small 
  units, 
  and 
  

   consequently 
  plan 
  B 
  shows 
  a 
  higher 
  rate 
  of 
  

   return 
  than 
  plan 
  A, 
  for 
  both 
  investment 
  per- 
  

   iods. 
  Different 
  plans 
  with 
  different 
  assump- 
  

   tions 
  would 
  give 
  different 
  results. 
  Unless 
  

   there 
  were 
  some 
  good 
  reasons 
  why 
  grand 
  fir 
  

   and 
  spruce 
  would 
  not 
  completely 
  satisfy 
  all 
  

   the 
  goals 
  of 
  the 
  timber 
  production 
  program, 
  

  

  15 
  

  

  