﻿The 
  planted 
  stand 
  — 
  predominantly 
  spruce 
  

   and 
  grand 
  fir 
  — 
  is 
  expected 
  to 
  be 
  merchant- 
  

   able, 
  as 
  defined 
  in 
  (1) 
  above, 
  in 
  about 
  55 
  

   years 
  from 
  time 
  of 
  planting. 
  Depending 
  on 
  

   the 
  proportion 
  of 
  Douglas-fir, 
  the 
  natural 
  

   stand 
  could 
  reach 
  merchantable 
  size 
  in 
  60 
  to 
  

   65 
  years 
  from 
  regeneration 
  date. 
  

  

  The 
  sawtimber 
  rotations 
  required 
  to 
  meet 
  

   the 
  current 
  size 
  class 
  objectives 
  would 
  be 
  100 
  

   years 
  for 
  species 
  in 
  the 
  planted 
  stand 
  and 
  

   110 
  years 
  from 
  regeneration 
  for 
  species 
  in 
  

   natural 
  stands. 
  

  

  Anticipated 
  volume. 
  — 
  Making 
  the 
  above 
  as- 
  

   sumptions, 
  and 
  discounting 
  potential 
  yields 
  

   for 
  risk 
  by 
  some 
  reasonable 
  percentage, 
  the 
  

   land 
  manager 
  finds 
  that 
  the 
  anticipated 
  

   volumes 
  of 
  standing 
  timber 
  when 
  the 
  stand 
  

   reaches 
  merchantable 
  size 
  are 
  as 
  follows: 
  

  

  1. 
  Planted 
  stands 
  at 
  55 
  years 
  

  

  Cm. 
  ft. 
  

  

  Spruce 
  2,750 
  

  

  Grand 
  fir 
  2,200 
  

   2. 
  Natural 
  stands 
  at 
  66 
  years 
  

  

  Spruce 
  1,260 
  

  

  Grand 
  fir 
  1,008 
  

  

  Douglas-fir 
  2,268 
  

  

  Growing 
  stands 
  to 
  a 
  full 
  sawtimber 
  rota- 
  

   tation 
  would 
  require 
  an 
  intermediate 
  cut 
  at 
  

   about 
  55 
  to 
  65 
  years. 
  The 
  estimated 
  yields 
  

   from 
  intermediate 
  and 
  harvest 
  cuts 
  are 
  as 
  

   follows: 
  

  

  1. 
  Planted 
  stands 
  

  

  Intermediate 
  cut 
  at 
  55 
  years 
  

  

  Cm. 
  ft. 
  

  

  Spruce 
  1,215 
  

  

  Grand 
  fir 
  1,215 
  

  

  Harvest 
  cut 
  at 
  100 
  years 
  

  

  Spruce 
  3,800 
  

  

  Grand 
  fir 
  3,200 
  

   2. 
  Natural 
  stands 
  

  

  Intermediate 
  cut 
  at 
  60 
  years 
  

  

  Douglas-fir 
  972 
  

  

  Spruce 
  324 
  

  

  Grand 
  fir 
  324 
  

  

  Harvest 
  cut 
  at 
  110 
  years 
  

  

  Douglas-fir 
  5,160 
  

  

  Spruce 
  1,220 
  

  

  Grand 
  fir 
  1,220 
  

  

  Values 
  Assumed 
  

  

  The 
  perils 
  of 
  predicting 
  future 
  wood 
  values 
  

   have 
  already 
  been 
  pointed 
  out. 
  However, 
  

   whenever 
  money 
  is 
  allocated 
  for 
  timber-grow- 
  

   ing 
  projects 
  some 
  assumption 
  about 
  the 
  future 
  

   is 
  implied 
  if 
  not 
  stated. 
  It 
  is 
  important 
  that, 
  

   regardless 
  of 
  what 
  price 
  estimates 
  are 
  used 
  

   for 
  these 
  future 
  values, 
  all 
  analysts 
  within 
  an 
  

   operational 
  unit 
  should 
  use 
  the 
  same 
  estimate. 
  

   In 
  this 
  illustration 
  the 
  following 
  stumpage 
  

   value 
  relationships 
  are 
  used: 
  

  

  Per 
  cubic 
  foot 
  

   Douglas-fir 
  $0.06 
  

   Spruce 
  .05 
  

   Grand 
  fir 
  .07 
  

  

  Having 
  estimated 
  costs, 
  yield, 
  values, 
  and 
  

   time 
  schedule, 
  the 
  timber 
  manager 
  can 
  now 
  

   conclude 
  the 
  evaluation 
  by 
  summarizing 
  the 
  

   details 
  of 
  each 
  alternative 
  plan 
  preliminary 
  

   to 
  recording 
  them 
  on 
  the 
  input 
  data 
  coding 
  

   forms 
  that 
  are 
  the 
  basic 
  information 
  source 
  

   for 
  the 
  EDP 
  program. 
  

  

  Evaluation 
  Summary 
  and 
  

   Computer 
  Analysis 
  

  

  Short 
  Investment 
  Period 
  

   Plan 
  A 
  

  

  Clearcut 
  in 
  small 
  blocks 
  of 
  20 
  acres 
  and 
  

   regenerate 
  naturally 
  to 
  Douglas-fir, 
  grand 
  fir, 
  

   and 
  spruce. 
  

  

  Costs: 
  

  

  Seed 
  source 
  $3 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  0 
  

  

  Site 
  preparation 
  $15 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  0 
  

   Thinning 
  at 
  age 
  15 
  $35 
  per 
  acre 
  at 
  year 
  18 
  

   Returns: 
  Value 
  of 
  merchantable 
  stand 
  

   at 
  age 
  66 
  

   Spruce 
  

  

  1,260 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.05 
  $ 
  63.00 
  

  

  Douglas-fir 
  

  

  2,268 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.06 
  136.08 
  

   Grand 
  fir 
  

  

  1,008 
  cu. 
  ft. 
  at 
  $0.07 
  70.56 
  

  

  Total 
  $269.64 
  

   Plan 
  B 
  

  

  Clearcut 
  in 
  large 
  block 
  of 
  100 
  acres 
  and 
  

   regenerate 
  by 
  planting 
  mostly 
  grand 
  fir 
  and 
  

   spruce 
  with 
  some 
  Douglas-fir 
  seeding 
  in. 
  

  

  14 
  

  

  