TRENDS SINCE 1952 



The statistical data for developing production trends in New Mexico have the same de- 

 ficiencies as those for Arizona. Data for all roundwood products are available only for the 3 

 years- -1952, 1960, and 1962. Census Bureau lumber production data not only are incomplete 

 for the 1952-62 period, but also do not appear well correlated with the output of roundwood 

 products. For all roundwood products, there was a 14-percent volume increase from 1952 to 

 1962 which encompassed a 30-percent gain from 1952 to 1960 and a 13 -percent decline from 

 1960 to 1962. 



New Mexico also has experienced a reduction in the total number of operating sawmills 

 from 1960 to 1962 and an accompanying rise in the output per active mill. In 1960, some 228 

 million board feet of lumber was cut in 117 mills; the average output per mill was 1.9 million 

 board feet. In 1962, 85 mills produced 245 million board feet of lumber, an average output of 

 2.9 million board feet per mill. The numbers of operating sawmills declined in almost every 

 mill production class from smallest to largest, but the decrease was most noticeable among 

 mills producing less than 500,000 board feet per year. 



SURVEY PROCEDURES 



The survey of saw log receipts was based on listings of sawmills for each State, which 

 were prepared late in 1962 and made as complete as possible through reviews by Forest Service 

 personnel. Operators of mills on each State list were contacted by mail to obtain data on their 

 log receipts in 1962. Also, all sawmills in neighboring States that were considered to be 

 possible recipients of logs from Arizona and New Mexico were asked to report. Field sampling 

 provided data for estimating, within acceptable error limits, the receipts of sawmill operators 

 who did not furnish a report by mail. 



For Arizona, total saw log receipts in 1962 were estimated to be 341,757,000 board feet, 

 and the standard error for that part of the total estimated by field sampling was 2,719,000 

 board feet, or 0.80 percent of the total. The odds, then, are 2 to 1 that the true State total 

 was between 339,038,000 and 344,476,000 board feet. For New Mexico, total saw log receipts 

 were estimated to be 247,620,000 board feet, with a standard error for the estimated portion of 

 3,215,000 board feet (1.30 percent of the total). At 2 to 1 odds, the true total for New Mexico 

 was between 244,405,000 and 250,835,000 board feet. 



In both States, estimates for round pulpwood, commercial poles, and miscellaneous in- 

 dustrial wood are based on reports from all plants known to receive these roundwood products 

 and are considered to be without sampling error. 



Both saw logs output (for lumber) and all roundwood products output show a marked rise 

 from 1952 to 1960, followed by a decline from 1960 to 1962. Census Bureau lumber production 

 data show a small increase from 1954 (data for 1952 are not available) to 1960, followed by a 

 stronger rise from 1960 to 1962. 



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