Ferguson, Dennis E.; Carlson, Clinton E. 1993. Predicting regeneration establishment with 

 the Prognosis Model. Res. Pap. INT-467. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

 Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station. 54 p. 



Conifer establishment following regeneration timber harvests is predicted by version 2 

 of the Regeneration Establishment Model, a submodel of the Prognosis Model. The regen- 

 eration model covers 10 species for forests in Montana, central Idaho, and northern Idaho. 

 Most harvest and site preparation methods can be simulated so that alternative treatments 

 can be evaluated. Also included in the model is the influence of western spruce budworm 

 (Choristoneura occidentalis) on regeneration success. The model predicts the probability 

 of stocking, seedling density, species composition, and seedling heights 2 to 20 years after 

 harvest. This paper describes the study design, equation development, model formulation, 

 and model behavior for the Regeneration Establishment Model. 



KEYWORDS: forest succession, forest planning, western spruce budworm, Choristoneura 

 occidentalis, conifers, Montana, Idaho 



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