ABSTRACT 



This paper describes a set of computer programs for combining 

 quantitative silvicultural knowledge with past growth data from a sam- 

 pled stand to make a prognosis of the course of development that the 

 forest stand is expected to follow under alternative management pre- 

 scriptions. An important design criterion of this procedure is that 

 the prognosis model should apply to stands containing any mixture of 

 species or age and size classes that grow as a community. The 

 model simulates the deviation-amplifying aspect of the growth pro- 

 cess by a unique procedure for introducing the stochastic elements 

 in a deterministic computing algorithm. The growth rates predicted 

 by the built-in models for diameter change are compared to the ac- 

 tual past growth of the sample trees to calibrate these models for the 

 particular stand for which the prognosis is to be computed. Selection 

 of trees to be cut at any period can utilize a variety of tree charac- 

 ters to emulate a wide range of silvicultural prescriptions. 



An application of these programs to develop prognoses for lodge- 

 pole pine stands in the presence of an infestation of mountain pine 

 beetles is described. 



