CALIFORNIA AVOCADO ASSOCIATION 



75 



WHAT ABOUT THE MARKET? 

 Geo. S. McClure, Riverside, Calif. 



What about the market? I think that is about the commonest ques- 

 tion I hear in regard to the avocado, and I hear it from two sides. You 

 opulent rich, who have a few trees are wondering how long you can net a 

 dollar a pound for your fruit; and the common people, who have to worry 

 along with nothing more profitable than banks, gold mines and oil wells to 

 provide the where-with-all, are wondering if the time will ever come when 

 it will be safe to acquire an avocado appetite. 



As the members of this association seem to wear the smile of the man 

 who "has his," let us consider the question from the seller's point of view. 



It is really startling to make figures on the probable profits from 

 avocado growing. No matter how conservatively you figure, your results 

 will appear far too rosy. A theoretical calculation is pretty sure to look 

 something like this: You are now getting from seventy-five cents to one 

 dollar each for fruit averaging about a pound in weight. Basing our esti- 

 mate on individual trees, an acre of avocados of the best variety will pro- 

 duce at least ten thousand pounds of fruit in a year. The cost of produc- 

 ing this fruit, after the trees are fully established, is about two cents a 

 pound; leaving a net profit of $9800 an acre. It sounds like the chicken 

 story doesn't it? Of course, it cannot be proved either true or false be- 

 cause there are no acre groves of full bearing trees of the better varieties, 

 but there are several trees in California, the average annual crops of which 

 reduced to an acre basis, would produce a still more startling estimate. 



I will try, therefore, to be as conservative as possible in speaking of 

 the conditions as I actually know them, and I hope you will pardon me if 

 I refer especially to Florida where the growers have already started to 

 market their fruit in the open markets of the north. 



Prices of all commodities are regulated by supply and demand. There 

 is at present practically no supply of avocados. There never can be a 

 large supply, for the territory suitable to their culture is very limited. In 

 the United States it is limited by temperature to a small area in California 

 and another in Florida. These two areas combined would hardly equal in 

 size the state of Connecticut. In the countries to the south of us, supply is 

 limited by the happy "go-lucky" characteristic that limits the vision to 

 manana, or at most pasado manana. To put his money and time into 

 something that will produce no returns for several years is not the way of 

 our Latin neighbor. American capital may plant to some extent in Cuba 

 and Porto Rico though I have seen but two small plantings of commercial 

 varieties in the West Indies and I do not know of any others. Lack of 

 rapid transportation will also limit competition from the tropics. I cannot 

 see where any supply can ever come from, that would supply the United 

 States, should the consumption per capita ever reach that of Southern 

 Florida or Cuba. 



It is safe to say that the average consumption in Havana is more than 

 a quarter of a pound per day during those seasons when avocados can be 

 bought for less than seven cents a pound. Should the per capita consump- 

 tion in America ever reach one-fifth that of Havana it would require 5,- 

 000,000 pounds a day or 1,500,000,000 pounds for the three hundred 



