March 24, 1905.] 



SCIENCE. 



457 



An advance in fresh beef affects the ex- 

 penditure of the working-man's family as 

 much as would the same advance in the 

 price of each of the four items, flour, corn 

 meal, bread and milk. An advance in 

 beef of two cents per pound means (if he 

 buys the same grade and quantity), the ex- 

 penditure of an additional amount equal 

 to the cost of lighting, or to taxes and 

 property insurance combined, or to the 

 expenditure for books and newspapers. 



The retail price of fresh beef at the 

 present time is about ten per cent, above 

 the average for the ten-year period from 

 1890 to 1899. The value per pound of 

 the fresh beef exported also shows a de- 

 cided advance. The average value for 

 the last five years was 11.4 per cent, above 

 the value for the preceding five years, and 

 13.3 per cent, above the value for the five 

 years ending June 30, 1894. 



A study of prices during the last fifteen 

 years shows that with few exceptions the 

 prices of beef cattle, of fresh beef at whole- 

 sale and of fresh beef at retail advance and 

 decline together, but not to the same ex- 

 tent. The margin between beef at whole- 

 sale and at retail is usually rather close. 

 While some parts of each carcass are re- 

 tailed at two or three times the cost at 

 wholesale, a considerable portion, if sold 

 at all, must be sold for less than was paid 

 at wholesale. In the early part of the pres- 

 ent month, a 'top' carcass which cost the 

 retailer seven cents per pound was sold in 

 Washington' as follows: 22 per cent, (in- 

 cluding trimmings) at three cents or less 

 per pound; 30 per cent, (including trim- 

 mings) at six cents or less per pound. 



The demand for fresh beef at home has 

 increased, owing to the increase in popu- 

 lation, the greater proportion of persons 

 living in cities and towns, and to improved 

 industrial conditions during the past few 

 years. The demand abroad, as shown by 

 our exports for the five years ending June 



30, 1904, was 21.7 per cent, greater than 

 for the preceding five years, and 55.6 per 

 cent, greater than for the five years end- 

 ing June 30, 1894. 



The most difficult question encountered 

 in a study of beef prices is that of the 

 supply. The estimates of the Bureau of 

 Statistics of the Department of Agricul- 

 ture show an increase from 1890 to 1904 

 of 15.6 per cent, in the number of cattle 

 in the United States, while in the same 

 time population increased about 30 per 

 cent., and the exports of fresh beef in- 

 creased 72.9 per cent. Deducting the 

 amount of fresh beef exported from the 

 amount sold by wholesale slaughtering and 

 packing establishments, the number of 

 pounds remaining per capita was 40.5 in 

 1890, 34.1 in 1900 and is estimated at 40 

 pounds in 1904. These figures do not of 

 course represent consumption, but afford 

 some measure of the relative amount of 

 fresh beef sold in each year. 



One of the most important factors in de- 

 termining the beef supply is the corn crop. 

 The price of corn makes more abrupt 

 changes than does the price of cattle, yet 

 the course of the prices of the two com- 

 modities is almost identical. 



Above are considered what may be called 

 the natural conditions in the beef industry. 

 It is possible that combinations of packers 

 exist, which would doubtless exert a 

 steadying influence on declining prices; or 

 a combination might be strong enough to 

 control to some extent the prices of cattle 

 bought for slaughtering, or the supply of 

 beef shipped, which would seriously affect 

 the price to the consumer. 



Movemoit of Wood Prices and their In- 

 fluence on Forest Management. B. E. 

 Fernow, formerly U. S. Division of 

 Forestry. 



Dr. Fernow refuted, by means of statis- 

 tics presented in the form of diagrams, 



