452 The Decline in Sheep Breeding. [Aug.. 



Up to June, 1917, there was no cause for alarm, as although 

 there had been a reduction of a million in the total, the breeding 

 flock had hppn hut slip;htly affected, and was indeed slightly larger 

 than in 1914. The serious depletion commenced after June, 

 1917, and in two years the total number of sheep declined by 

 10 per cent, and, what is more ominous, the breeding ewes 

 decreased by over 13 per cent. 



I have already indicated that the number of sheep in the 

 country has always been subject to considerable fluctuations, 

 attributable to the effect of season on the lambing and on the 

 supply of keep, to the trend of prices for muiton and wool, and 

 sometimes to the outbreak of disease. In the two years 1879-81, 

 for instance, we lost 3 J million sheep, mainly as the result of 

 bad seasons and disease. But it is evident that we must look 

 further for the cause of the losses since 1917. 



There are three factors to which the recent decline of sheep 

 breeding has been attributed; all of them are exceptional and 

 are due to the War. 



1. — Special economic conditions. 



2. — Control of prices, distdbution and sale by the State. 



3. — Extension of arable cultivation. 



Control. — Abnormal economic conditions arose, of course, as 

 soon as war broke out in 1914, and farming difficulties commenced 

 early in 1915, when the shortage of labour and increased cost of 

 feeding stuffs began to be felt. These difficulties progressively 

 increased and became no doubt substantially greater after June, 

 1917, than before. It was, however, at that period that the two 

 other factors were introduced. The "plough policy" began to 

 operate in the early part of 1917, maximum prices for mutton 

 were fixed in September of that year, and in January, 1918, the 

 official control of the sale and distribution of sheep commenced . 



I do not propose to discuss the details of the control imposed 

 by the State on the sheep-breeding industry. The system 

 adopted was, of course, subject to some criticism on the ground 

 that it might have been carried out in a different way with better 

 advantage and less disturbance. Any system of the kind hastily 

 improvised and necessarily entrusted to a large number of 

 individuals temporarily engaged in administrative work of a 

 novel character must in any case have had defects. Possibly 

 experience might in the course of time have suggested improve- 

 ments in detail and a better system might have been evolved. 

 It is well, however, to be quite clear on this point and to recog- 



