1920.] 



More Wheat. 



333 



Prospects for 1920 and 1921. — For the cereal year igi()-2(^ the 

 imports into this country will be about 100,000,000 cwt., and 

 the requirements for 1920-21 may be set at a rather higher 

 figure, say 110,000,000 cwt., in view of the unascertained 

 but still certain decline in the acreage sown with wheat in the 

 United Kingdom for the 1920 crop. 



The acreage sown with wheat in America, from wliich 

 the main export to Europe is derived, shows a considerable 

 decline, something like 25 per cent.* Against this there is 

 estimated to be a carry over of something more than 60,000,000 

 cwt. from the 1918-19 crop. 



India has a good crop and an exportable surplus, and 

 Argentina has also an exportable surplus from its 1920 crop, 

 though there are doubts whether Europe can get it. 



Australia has no longer any accumulated surplus, and with 

 the bad season it has just been going through the prospects 

 of export from its crop of 1921 are very problematical, while 

 export from Russia cannot on the evidence before us be 

 expected. 



In any case, after taking uito account the North American 

 carry over, there is a very narrow margin for safety, and there 

 are two factors in the question that cannot be estimated. 

 There is the demand from France, Italy and Belgium, which 

 in 1918-19 amounted to something more than 110,000,000 cwt., 

 and the entirely unknown demand, unknown both as to extent 

 and the financial capacities of the countries to pay for it, 

 from Central Europe, where, however, good crops are expected. 

 Again, the non-European countries, particularly Japan, are 

 becoming greatly increased wheat eaters, and will cause an 

 additional strain upon the world's supply. 



There is no department in which prophecy is more dangerous 

 than that of food supply, but in view of the fact that under 

 the most favourable view the world will only get through the 

 year 1920-21 in virtue of the American surplus, and that every 

 civilised country shows the same phenomenon of a withdrawal 

 of labour from the land, we cannot escape from the conclusion 

 that wheat will be short in the world for some years to come — 

 so short that any bad crop in one of the great producing 

 countries may result in something like famine conditions. 



* Wheat Aciuuf^r. 



igig. jg2o. 



49.905,000 . . 38.770,000 



23,338,000 .. 19,487,0(^0 



73.243.ouo . . 58.257.000 

 19,126,000 ., 17,000,000 



2 A 



USA ' Winter 

 (Spring 



Canada . . 



