19-21.] 



An Agricultural Index Number. 



579 



1914 

 1915 

 1916 

 1917 



Incr. per cent. 

 1 

 27 



60 



... 101 



1.^18 

 1919 

 1920 



Incr. per cent. 

 132 

 158 

 192 



It 



These figures represent the average of the calendar years 

 will be seen that, whilst in the first two years of the war the 

 increase in agricultural prices was small, by 1917 prices had 

 practically doubled; while in 1920, on the average they were 

 192 per cent, above those ruling in 1911-13. Although this waa 

 the average figure for the whole year, considerable reductions 

 took place in certain articles during 1920, and these reductions, 

 as is well known, have been continued and emphasised in 1921 , 

 To form an idea of current changes, it is necessary to^have 

 recourse to a monthly index number. 



.' The monthly index number is more liable to error than the 

 annual figure, owing to the fact that there are fluctuations in the 

 quantities marketed from month to month, and seasonal varia- 

 tions in prices, which render the system of weights less satis- 

 factory. By excluding certain commodities, such as hops, wool, 

 fruit and vegetables, which are particularly subject to these 

 variations, an approximate monthly index number is obtained 

 which gives in broad outline the changes from month to month. 

 Since the beginning of 1919 the figures have been as follows : — 



Month. 



Incroase pej* cent, on the average of the 

 years 1911-13. 





1919. 



1920. 



1921. 



January 



148 



213 



186 



February 



150 



205 



172 



March ... ... 



150 



199 



158 



April 



153 



199 



141 



May 



132 



169 



112 



June 



128 



164 



102 



July 



141 



174 



100 



August ... 



138 



177 



116 



■September 



148 



181 





October ... 



166 



191 





November 



182 



197 





December ... ... ... 



207 



194 





During 1921, it will be seen that agricultural prices fell 

 steadily from January to July. In January they were still on 

 the average 186 per cent, above the 1911-13 level, in July they 

 were only 100 per cent, higher — that is, approximately double 

 the figures ruling during the three years before the War. 



In August prices showed some recovery, due in part to the 

 seasonal increase in milk prices which normally occurs in August 



A -7 



