*77 



for the last forty-two years. From this they can see that, notwith- 

 standing fluctuations, the average price per year has, with excep- 

 tions, shown an upward tendency. This is a copyright table, but, 

 on application, I will be glad to give permission to any paper to 

 publish it. 



The lack of logic shown in the reasoning that the price de- 

 pends upon the stock in the United Kingdom is obvious. It is 

 easy to select certain months in certain years to secure proof of any 

 argument one likes to advance. Still, even taking the months and 

 prices given, the absurdity of the reasoning is clear. The visible 

 supply of Para rubber — that is stock in Britain, Europe, America 

 and at Para and afloat, in January, 1900 — was 4,508 tons, and the 

 price was 4s. Qd. In September, 1903, it was 1,817 tons, and the 

 price was 4s. Sd. To say that the stock in the United Kingdom 

 determines the price is to put the cart before the horse. 



Some real reasons for fluctuations may be given. The rubber 

 maikst is more or less in the hands of the importers — firms of con- 

 siderable capital and experience. They have their own risks to 

 take, doubtless, but so strong is their position that only natural 

 laws prevent them from attaining a complete ascendency. Their 

 constant effort is to keep the price of crude rubber as high as pos- 

 sible, and to effect their purpose they arrange matters so that every 

 possible advantage is taken of existing opportunities. The methods 

 adopted are too intricate to go into here (even if the writer fully 

 knew them all) but the result is well enough known. When the 

 manufacture must have rubber the price goes up. That may be a 

 coincidence ! Short harvests, bad seasons, high mortality amongst 

 the natives are all urged at times as a reason why there must be a 

 scarcity of rubber, but the real determining factor is the demand 

 of the manufacturer. The supply and demand are so very close that 

 even a slight brisk trade on the manufacturing side will make an 

 appreciable difference. 



Stocks ''and" Stocks. — Then, again, there are different sorts of 

 stocks. There are stocks of rubber not yet sold to the manufac- 

 turer, and there is the stock which he himself holds. Last year, to 

 my own knowledge, one firm in America bought within a week 

 200,000 dollars worth of rubber — and there have been bigger pur- 

 chases than that made. When rubber is high in price the manu- 

 facturer buys as little as possible — naturally. It therefore depends 

 upon how much stock the manufacturer has, and how brisk the 

 trade is, as to the length of time that the price will keep up. The 

 stocks that our con tern porary speaks of follow the price of rubber, 

 and not the price following the stocks. I trust that I have made 

 the position clearer. The table referred to is a very important one 

 for members to preserve, as it clearly proves that, notwithstanding 

 the increased supply, the price of rubber is, on the average, going 

 up slowly but steadily. 



Over-production, etc. is also another theme on which much ink 

 has been shed. In order to give members matter with which to 

 settle this argument, I have collected the figures for 14 years show- 



