14 



but Sumatra, Java, Borneo, India, Burmah and New Guinea probably 

 account for at least another 150,000 acres. As we are dealing with 

 Asia, we will not take into account Africa and tropical America, 

 although planting is proceeding on a large scale in both countries. 

 Excluding these countries, then, we have a total of 573,138 acres 

 planted by December 1908, an average which has probably been 

 increased to considerably over 600,000 acres during the current year. 

 For the purpose of this estimate, however, we will confine ourselves 

 to the area planted prior to December 31, 1908. 



The average age of the trees on the Malacca Rubber Co.'s 

 estates works out at 2.83 years, but owing to lack of data, I am un- 

 fortunately unable to state definitely the average age of the whole 

 of the 573,138 acres under cultivation, though, from the data at my 

 disposal, I should put it at just under" 3 years at the time of writing. 

 However, as we are not dealing with anything planted during the 

 current year, I think We are certainly justified in assuming that the 

 average age and the average yield of the area under cultivation will 

 compare favourably with that of the Malacca Rubber Co. estates ; 

 and it will probably come as a surprise to some to find that on the 

 basis allowed by the directors of this company — viz. 500 lbs. per acre 

 — the production of plantation rubber from Southern Asia alone will 

 amount to no less than 127,932 tons in the year 1915. At one-third 

 the present price this would be worth £38,379,600 sterling. 



I offer no comment upon these figures beyond stating that 

 although acquainted with the majority of rubber estates in the Malay 

 Peninsula and Sumatra, I have yet to learn that the Malacca Co.'s 

 estates enjoy any special advantages in the matter of soil, climate, 

 labour supply, transport, or immunity from plant diseases and pests ; 

 so allowing that the condition of these estates is neither better nor 

 worse than that of the average rubber plantation, and that the 

 estimates of the management are approximately correct, we are con- 

 fronted with an estimated ivorld's out-put of just under 200,000 tons 

 in the year 191 5, assuming the yield from present sources remains 

 stationary at about 70,000 tons. 



Amid the glamour of record prices and huge dividends, it is 

 somewhat difficult to see things in their true perspective; but even 

 if we halve these estimates, it is obvious that the days of competition 

 between the wild and the cultivated product are not very far distant. 

 There is undoubtedly a period of severe depression ahead, and it is 

 equally certain that as a result, the wild rubber industry must go to 

 the wall, for it is inconceivable that, with the exceptionally favourable 

 conditions obtaining in the plantation rubber industry, the wild 

 product can possibly withstand the competition for any length of 

 time. It follows, therefore, that rubber planting companies already 

 firmly established have little cause for anxiety, though I am afraid 

 the same cannot be said of some recent flotations, many of which 

 although highly capitalised are not over-burdened with working 

 capital : and herein lies the danger, for the bogey of overproduction 

 will loom very large ahead, when serious competition with the wild 

 product results in a very small margin of profit, and the working 

 capital of the younger esta'tes has reached vanishing point : — 

 Straits Times, Dec, 4th 1909. Stanley Arden, F.L.S. 



