420 REPORT OF THE COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE. 



selected for this work, that national and local effort should be on the 

 same line, and that any discrepancies appearing might be harmonized 

 and verified. The State agent, as an assistant to the Statistician, 

 could examine in detail the local peculiarities which explain the changes 

 of area or product that constantly occur, and give greater thoroughness 

 and accuracy to the published reports. 



The correspondence of the Bureau is various and extensive, includiug 

 compilation from records and original research, for Congressional com- 

 mittees, members of Congress, editors, authors, and others. There is 

 necessarily a limit to this work, but scarcely a limit to the demand in 

 this direction. 



METHOD OF CEOP EEPOETS. 



Crop reporting has always held important relations to prices, but its 

 methods were formerly very crude and unsatisfactory. Neighborhood 

 gossip of rural regions formed and expressed local public opinion on 

 production, without much of system or calculation. The newspaper of 

 days not very remote gathered up these opinions, loosely expressed, of 

 uncertain meaning, and presented them without much analysis or inter- 

 pretation, mainly because they were susceptible of neither. In recent 

 days, with development of official systems, crop reporting has become 

 popular and more practical, and much improvement in method has re- 

 sulted. 



There are a few points essential to the value of a crop report : 



1. Its estimates must have a common measure of value, meaning the 

 same to every reader, and susceptible of tabulation with similar state- 

 ments. 



2. They must each cover a definite territory. Thousands of indi- 

 vidual reports, however accurate, are worthless without a knowledge 

 of the precise area covered by each. One report which covers the com 

 acreage of McLean County, Illinois, may refer to a production of twelve 

 million bushels, while a dozen others, reporting detached areas of other 

 counties in the same State, would not together represent a million 

 bushels. In this fact lies the worthlessness of many a pretentious effort 

 in crop reporting. 



In the Department system, reports are made by counties, making it 

 possible to perfect an average. If an increase of area of 5 per cent, is 

 reported, it is necessary to know whether the report represents 1,000 or 

 10,000 acres. The following explanation of "the meaning of crop- 

 reporting figures" is given for the benefit of those who are not familiar 

 with our methods : 



There is occasional inquiry as to the meaning of figures used in crop 

 reporting. The standard of comparison, 100, in reports of condition of 

 growing crops, means that the plants occupy the ground fully, exhibit- 

 ing a complete "stand"; that they appear in full healthfulness, unin- 

 jured by disease or insects; and that they have a medium growth for 

 the date at which the report is made. It means a condition of full de- 

 velopment that can only be exceeded by some luxuriance of growth. 

 Hence it is absurd to report 150 for condition for most crops. It 

 would misrepresent the comparative capacity for production. Cotton, 

 for instance, with medium growth and a full healthy stand, promises 

 better results than with great luxuriance or excess of " weed," which 

 postpones fruiting and gives smaller results, unless the date of killing 

 frost should be unusually late, in which case a larger yield might ac- 

 crue. But great growth of stalk in a short season is dreaded by cot- 



