562 REPORT OF THE COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE. 



ally conservative, but it is certain that the rate of yield will be ranch 

 below the average. 



It is the experience of the Department that returns of final product 

 are much too low, not by a uniform percentage, for the local estimates 

 are more depressed in a year of partial failure than in one of good yield. 

 The inevitable tendency of declining production is to depress the spirits 

 and bias the judgment of the reporter. The peculiar features of the 

 present crop history cause a wide discrepancy between condition in Sep- 

 tember and October, and comparative product reported later. In al- 

 lowing for this depression, in such a year as this, there is a possibility 

 that figures may remain too low. The October returns of condition, 

 notwithstanding the difference in subsequent dates of killing frost, have 

 in former years pointed quite closely to the ultimate result. In the 

 census year the October average was 81, and the crop 5,755.350 bales. 



The average of condition in October, and the commercial movement 

 for four crops since 1870, bear relation as follows: 



Years. 



Average. 



Movement. 





84 



66 



Baits. 



6 605,750 



5, 456, 048 



6, 949, 756 

 5, 713, 200 







88 



1883 



68 







The October average of 1884 was 74, but the failure of subsequent 

 fruitage was very marked, making it evident that these October indica- 

 tions would not this year point so nearly to the ultimate product. It 

 would still seem possible, however, that the crop may equal that of last 

 year, though the December returns do not warrant such a conclusion, 

 and the.v are given above, with such corrections only as former experi- 

 ence has shown to be necessary. While it is absurd to report local 

 estimates, or census returns, even, without revision and correction, it has 

 been the practice of this Bureau to give from month to month a fair in- 

 terpretation of the returns, and not an individual estimate based on them. 

 The interested public can thus read the history of the crop development 

 and disasters, and reach a conclusion in accord with it ; and it is very 

 certain that individual conclusions will ever be modified by personal in- 

 terest whatever the official figures. The quality of cotton is unusually 

 good. There was little damage from rain, and a small proportion of 

 stained fiber. Some correspondents declared that there was no stained 

 cotton. Similar reports came from Georgia and Alabama, and substan- 

 tially from those farther west. 



The falling off of the top crop — the blighting of the later bolls, and 

 their failure to mature — is almost unprecedented, according to the re- 

 turns of correspondents. 



FARM PRICES OF THE CROP OF 1884. 



The records of the prices of farm products are made in December. 

 They are the basis of value of the crops of the year. The tendency to 

 lower rates is observed everywhere as to most crops, not only from 

 abundance of production, but in sympathy with the general depression 

 in values of all commodities. 



