February 19, 1886.] 



SCIENCE. 



173 



July, August, and September. The winds ex- 

 perienced were chiefly from the north-east. 



THE POPULATION OF LONDON. 



The growth of this huge city presents a problem 

 full of interest, says Engineering, and not without 

 anxiety to those who are responsible for its gov- 

 ernment. It has already attained a population 

 which overshadows that of every other city, both 

 ancient and modern, and which, indeed, surpasses 

 that of many a kingdom whose actions are now 

 watched with concern by the leading statesmen of 

 Europe. Scotland, Switzerland, and the Australa- 

 sian colonies each contains less souls than London, 

 while Norway, Servia, Greece, and Denmark can 

 scarcely boast half so many. The famous cities of 

 the world look small by comparison. Paris, Ber- 

 lin, and Brussels cannot together equal the sum of 

 its multitude, nor New York, Brooklyn, Hoboken, 

 and Jersey City two-thirds of it. And the greater 

 part of this aggregation of human beings has been 

 gathered together within very recent times. 



Since the commencement of the century the 

 number of inhabitants has quadrupled, rising 

 from 958,863 in 1801, to 3,816,483 in 1881 ; and the 

 question to be answered is, how long will the 

 attraction which London possesses for the people 

 of the provinces and of foreign lands continue, and 

 how long can it find' accommodation for the yearly 

 influx ? When the attraction ceases, it is safe to 

 predict the beginning of the end ; for, as soon as the 

 metropolis no longer draws to itself the best men 

 from every part of the country, it will lose its 

 supremacy, and other places will rival it, each 

 being its superior in some department. But there 

 is a sense in which London must in time become 

 fixed, and incapable of further expansion. The 

 area of the registration district is not likely to be 

 extended, and consequently a time must arrive, if 

 the growth be maintained, when it will be com- 

 pletely filled, and all additions must be confined to 

 the surrounding district, the greater London, the 

 size of which no one can foretell. 



The length of time which will be occupied in 

 filling the present metropolitan area formed one of 

 the principal topics lately dealt with by Mr. Price- 

 Williams in a paper on ' The population of Lon- 

 don, 1801 to 1881,' recently read before the Statis- 

 tical society. In this he traced the variation of 

 the population in each district decade by decade, 

 showing how many have attained a maximum, 

 and then declined to be stationary at a point which 

 appears to represent their permanent capability. 

 The total area of London is 75,334 acres, or, 

 omitting those occupied by water, 74,427 acres. 

 Mr. Price- Williams estimates the maximum pos- 



sible population within the metropolitan registra- 

 tion area at about 7,000,000, or about ninety-four 

 people per acre, and that it will require thirty-six 

 years for the density to be acquired over the entire 

 area, assuming that the average rate of increase of 

 population, which has obtained during the last 

 eighty years, namely, 18.86 per cent per decade, 

 to be maintained in the future. He points out, 

 however, that the percentage of increase has been 

 falling since 1851, and is now only 17.28 per cent ; 

 so that it is possible, or indeed probable, that the 

 term of years mentioned by him may be exceeded. 



Mr. Price-Williams bases his calculations on the 

 capacity of the metropolis by observing that in all 

 parts some area gets filled, and then in a little 

 time the population decreases to a point which 

 may be considered as a constant at which it will 

 be maintained. In the districts which are com- 

 pletely built over, the tendency is for the popula- 

 tion to be displaced by shops, offices, and the like ; 

 and thus it may safely be affix med that in such 

 parts the maximum will never be reached again. 

 In the outlying districts there is generally some 

 part which may be taken as fairly characteristic 

 of the whole, and may be used as a basis for cal- 

 culation. 



The commencement of the marked increase 

 coincided with the institution of the railways, 

 which rendered it possible to persons to live at a 

 distance and get backwards and forwards with 

 facility. It is an interesting problem to consider 

 how much further the system of suburban resi- 

 dence will be extended. Already there are signs 

 that a part of the population is finding that it is 

 not worth while to take a long journey to reside 

 in a street which only differs from the street in 

 which their business is conducted by being worse 

 paved and lighted. The inhabitants which con- 

 stitute ; society' always congregated in town, and 

 now the rapid erection of mansions let out in flats 

 testifies that their superior convenience and better 

 sanitary arrangements serve as an equivalent to 

 the fresher air of the country. If the co-operative 

 system of housekeeping were to become general, it 

 would greatly modify the estimate as to the pos- 

 sible maximum population. The average density 

 of Paris is more than double that of London, and 

 yet the streets are brighter and cleaner. The 

 question probably turns more upon the prevention 

 of smoke than upon any thing else. If the fog and 

 gloom could be removed, and free access provided 

 for the sunlight, there is no pleasanter or healthier 

 place to live than the west end of London ; and 

 many who now endure, morning and evening, 

 forty minutes' journey through choking tunnels, 

 and walk long distances to railway termini, would 

 stay in town if they could be relieved from the de- 



