THE SUPPLEMENT TO THE 



Tropical Agriculturist and Magazine of the C. A. 8. 



Compiled and Edited by A. M. & J. FERGUSON. 

 No. 3.] MARCH, 1912. [Vol. X. 



RUBBER IN CEYLON AND "THE 

 EAST" GENERALLY IN 1912. 



Is the Total of Rubber Exported from 

 Southern Asia this Year to Exceed 

 30,000 Tons ? 



We showed recently how very near the mark 

 did the estimates given in the Ceylon "Hand- 

 book and Directory," of rubber to be exported 

 from Ceylon during 1908-11, approximate to 

 the actual results. But it must be remem- 

 bered that we were " in the days of small 

 things " in dealing with the rubber areas in 

 " bearing " for these years. Even in 1904, when 

 our returns show«d 25,000 acres as planted, only 

 " 600 acres " of this could be said to be " bear- 

 ing " (or six years old) and so the ratio moved 

 up slowly until in 1909 we found that 5,500 acres 

 must have been "tapped " or "tappable," while 

 by 1910, this became 20,000 acres out of a total 

 planted of 203,500 acres, and last year the pro- 

 portion became 35,000 acres out of the aggregate 

 in cultivation at the present time. Henceforth 

 we begin to face very considerable figures if 

 any faith is to be placed on the statistics of 

 planted area six years ago. For instance, in 1907, 

 the estate returns showed 150,000 acres covered 

 with rubber, and for next year (1913) the mode- 

 rate estimate in bearing is 130,000 with 170,000 

 and 186,000 in 1914 and 1915 when the Ceylon 

 export should then (three years hence) be 20,000 

 tons. Of more immediate interest is the ex- 

 pected current year's export. We put it down 

 as 6,500 tons ; but we believe that 7,000 or more 

 are anticipated in some quarters ; while the 

 Malay Mail estimates 14,122 tons for the Fede- 

 rated Malay States in 1912. For all " Malaysia 

 and the Straits," the London Times represen- 

 tative expects 18,000 tons for this year. If we 

 make allowances for Java, Sumatra, Borneo and 

 some minor producers in the Far East and for 

 India and Burma, it is very evident that " the 

 East " should send to the European and A.meri- 

 34 



can consuming markets not less than 30,000 tons 

 of rubber* during 1912, all but a small proportion, 

 the produce of cultivated plantations and mainly 

 of the "Hevea'' variety. For last year Messrs. 

 S. Figgis & Co. put down the plantation sup- 

 ply at 14,200 tons and they estimate 850,000 

 acres as under rubber cultivation in the East ; 

 while our table (just made up) shows 884,500 

 acres— with 1,072,700 acres for "the world"; 

 but the figures for Mexico, Congo, Guianas 

 and Brazil are, at best, only guesses amongst 

 the variable reports and publications available 

 from these parts. It is very clear, how- 

 ever, that time is close at hand for an 

 active and important collision in the London, 

 New York and European continental markets 

 between Wild (Amazonian and West African) 

 and Plantation rubbers. Last year demonstrated 

 a considerable testing in this respect and the 

 plantation article came off very well in the 

 competition. But the lessons to be taught from 

 the experience of 1912 will be more mani- 

 fold and important both as to relative quality 

 and price, based as they must be on the 

 much larger quantity from the East. Lower 

 prices, most people have been anticipating; 

 but so far the expectation is not fulfilled. 

 Many would like to see a marked advance in 

 consumption even if prices went a little lower ; 

 and one important question which has to be 

 solved is, how far the " wild " Para rubber- 

 gatherers or their employers or patrons, can 

 stand a declension of prices in the European 

 and American markets ? We know in the East, 

 pretty well, at what rate per lb. rubber, under 

 ordinary conditions, can be turned out of planta- 

 tions, at least in Ceylon, Malaya, India, Java, 

 Sumatra, Borneo, &c. S. Figgis & Co. put 88,000 

 tons as the " Rubber " production and consump- 

 tion of the world for 1911. Is 91,110tons too high 

 a figure for 1912 ? We hope not ; but rather that 



* Worth 10 to 12 million sterling ? 



