26fi 



The Supplement to the Tropical Agriculturist 



this figure may be exceeded and that for all 

 concerned — and especially for the planters in 

 " the East," and those in Ceylon — may the year 

 prove a satisfactory one in every way, giving 

 a due reward for all honest labour. 



"THE ROMANCE OF THE RUBBER 

 INDUSTRY." 



ANTICIPATIONS AND RESULTS : 



Some years ago, Mr. Thomas North Christie 

 wrote a very readable paper for "Chambers' 

 Journal" under a heading very like the one 

 above; but the time has already come for 

 a new and even more startling chapter in the 

 " Romance of Rubber" if due respect be given 

 to the crops and values already attained 

 in the East. Estimates framed by some of 

 the more level-headed experienced men in 

 the Eastern Planting world some years ago 

 have been far eclipsed by actual results; 

 while even the "wild figures" and "dreams," a3 

 they were laughingly dubbed, of amateur out- 

 siders, are now likely to be ranked as common 

 sense and even moderate prognostications. Not 

 many years ago, it was supposed by a good 

 "official " authority that 25,000 acres (and later 

 40,000 acres) was the probable limit of land in 

 Ceylon that could be covered by Hevea (Para) 

 rubber ; while the area actually planted is all 

 but an insignificant portion of 215,000 acres 

 cultivated in the island ; there are 400,000 in 

 the Malay Peninsula and nearly 200,000 more 

 in Java, Sumatra and Dependencies, with 25,000 

 for Borneo, Siam and New Guinea, while India 

 and Burma make up 47,000, or a grand total of 

 Rubber Cultivation for South-eastern Asia of 

 987,000 acres. But if but 15 to 20 per cent, of 

 the trees growing in this area are only now being 

 tapped, and if 30,000 tons* " Plantation " are to 

 be shipped Westward this year, what may be 

 the crop when all is in bearing ? Five years ago, 

 the anticipation most regarded in the home 

 market was one which pointed to an Asiatic ex- 

 port of "Plantation" rubber in 1912 as under 

 10,000 tons in placa of three times that quantity; 

 and even the late Mr. Carruthers— sanguine 

 man as he was thought — was many per cent, 

 below reality in his estimate for 'Malaya ; while 

 no one doubts that even Sir John Anderson's 

 "wild dream" of an export of 70,000 tons(!) 

 from Malaya may be realised in 1916 A. D. 

 It must be remembered that Governor Ander- 

 son, in venturing on such figures in a six-year 

 anticipation, did so for the purpose of in- 

 ducing planters to cultivate the land they had 

 opened, rather than to "grab" more land and 

 extend. May not the ! counsel be a wise one to 

 offer now all over the East ? In any case, it 

 will be for all interested in the " Amazonian " 



* One "wild estimate " in 1910 actually gave 

 75,000tonsof rubberto come from the East in 1912. 

 Mr. Brice corrected this to 18,750 tons ; but the 

 actual output may be 30,000 or over. 



region of South America and in the " Funtu- 

 mia " trees or jungle-creepers of the African 

 interior, to lay to heart the lesson of the in- 

 evitable increasing crops of "plantation rubber " 

 which must come, year by year, during the 

 current decade from the East. One of the most 

 moderate estimates (though deemed very san- 

 guine at the time) was that made by Mr. 

 Stanley Arden, f.l.s., in 1909 when he said 

 that "the Middle East will in another five 

 years (by 1914) supply 40,000 tons, valued at 

 £13,440,000 bven if the price fall to 3s per lb." 

 One local authority puts 20,000 tons for Ceylon 

 in 1920 ; Malaya 40,000 and Java, Sumatra 

 and Borneo 15,000— or 75,000 tons eight years 

 hence; while taking no notice of India, Burma 

 and sundry minor producers. But it is not 

 well to dwell on figures attached to an esti- 

 mate of eight years hence, although it may 

 be useful to bring up such in order to 

 caution speculators and would-be planters 

 of new land, to think and look before they 

 leap. In any case it is most true, as the 

 London Times says, that the percentages of 

 "wild" and "plantation" rubber in relative 

 position are changing; so is "the rapid pro- 

 gress the latter is making in supplying the 

 world's requirements." When we remember 

 the hopeful view of the future of rubber in this 

 colony that Dr. Willis gave to our represen- 

 tative as he was leaving Ceylon, the Brazilian 

 authorities and public interested cannot say 

 that they had no one to warn them. Low 

 prices there must be, as time rolls on ; but 

 if new uses come to the front, and consump- 

 tion rapidly increases, the decline in market 

 rates must prove very gradual. In 1910 "planta- 

 tion " rubber provided one-Unth of the world's 

 requirements ; but last year it supplied one- 

 sixth and 1912 may see this proportion in- 

 creased to one-third. Let it also be noted that the 

 manufacturing demand for " plantation " rubber 

 steadily grows and its value may be seen when 

 the {all in price during 1911 averaged Is. as 

 compared to a fall of Is. 6d. in " Para " from 

 the Amazonian territory. 



Let it be noted that while and Consumption 

 — we put the total of the World's Rubber 

 Production at 1,822,200 cwt. as the supply 

 of 1912 (and consumption of the different 

 manufacturing countries as a little less) or 91,110 

 tons, so good an authority as Mr. Lampard 

 puts the world's consumption in 1912 as high 

 as 101,000 tons and the total output (pro- 

 duction or collection) as 93.000 tons (of which 

 only 20,000 tons are given to the Middle 

 East) ; while another high authority (Hecht) 

 gives 90,180 tons as the supply, indicating a still 

 stronger position for the producer (planter) 

 than even Mr. Arthur Lampard supposes. 

 Clearly, the indications are of a satisfactory 

 and prosperous year throughout 1912, at least, 

 for the planters in Southern Asia with rubber 

 trees in bearing. 



