270 



The Supplement to the Tropical Agriculturist 



THE RUBBER PLANTING INDUSTRY : 

 IN CONCLUSION. 



FUTURE CHOPS-PRICES— AND THE 

 "FIGHT'' BETWKEN "WILD AND 

 PLANTATION." 



THE OUTCOME. 

 In disposing finally of this subject for the 

 present, there are a few further figures worthy 

 of note. On Feb. 25th, 1910, the London Times 

 gave prominence in big type, to a paper by "A 

 Correspondent" on "Supplies of Rubber with 

 estimated future production." In a table of 

 " Production of old and new Companies " (134 

 Rubber Companies for Malay States ; 86 for 

 Ceylon and India : 54 for Borneo, Dutch E. 

 Indies, &c. ; 23 Africa, South America) the 

 writer showed the total for 1912 to amount to 

 23,733,000 lb. equal to about 10,000 tons and that 

 for 1914 to about 21,000 tons. Further it was 

 supposed that the South American supply two 

 years hence would keep to about 40,000 tons and 

 26,000 tons would cover "wild" rubber from other 

 parts, and, further, it 6,300 tons (or 30 per cent) 

 be added to plantation tor "rupee" Companies 

 and private producers, a grand total of 93,300 

 tons would be reached. But the estimator two 

 years ago was cautious, for he allowed 20 per 

 cent (5,640 tons) for troes " resting " or other 

 wise "put out of action," making the aggregate 

 production of 1914 as 87, 140 tons. We need not 

 say that even the present year is expected to 

 give a better result, especially in " plantation " 

 rubber and a total supply of 92,000 tons or over 

 is expected ; while, as regards consumption or 

 demand a higher figure is advanced by sevoral 

 authoritits. There is one other estimate (in 

 favour in Germany, it appears) which puts the 

 output of " plantation" rubber in 1916-17 (when 

 the planted area of last year will all be produc- 

 tive) at 110,000 tons with 65,000 tons of " wild ' 

 if so much be collected. But the German esti- 

 mate of consumption by 1916 comes to 110,000 

 tons, leaving a big surplus wasted? ! But due 

 allowance is not made for new uses when prices 

 fall, as they would with a surplus. Apparently, 

 however, falling prices for Rubber do not come 

 in a hurry. Three years ago, a shrewd Ceylon 

 authority ventured on average prices for a series 

 of years, thus : 6s. 6d. in 1909 to 4s. 6d. per lb. 

 tor 1912, and then 4s. ;3s. 6d., and 3s. for the next 

 three years respectively, and the last price (3s. 

 in 1915) " 1 estimate a reasonable one for many 

 years to come." So wrote Mr. Joseph Fraser in 

 1909 and there is no reason yet to consider him 

 unduly sanguine as a prophet. On the other 

 hand it is shown that estates opened and 

 carried on to bearing for £30 an acre, or so, 

 with satisfactory crops and rubber produced 

 at Is or even Is 3d a lb., a price giving a 6d 

 per lb. profit should satisfy the Eastern Rubber 

 Planter. Much, of course, will depend on how 

 the " wild rubber capitalists and collectors 

 will stand the coming ordeal and we cannot 

 forget that the great "Para" authority, Dr. 

 Huber — who is described by Pearson of New 

 York as knowing 'more about the Hevea specie* 

 than any one else in the world' — considers 

 that it will be difficult for the Amazon Valley 

 soon to compete with Eastern plantations. 



Still, there may be a prolonged fight. An 

 industry which has lasted 50 years, and means 

 everything to the people concerned, is not to 

 disappear in a brief period. For the present 

 year, the indications for Brazil are considered 

 quite hopeful ; and by the Government re- 

 ducing its levies and Bankers coming to the 

 rescue of employers, the Amazonian collec- 

 tion should continue even if the price fell to 

 3s a lb. But when the market goes below 

 that rate, there must be a gradual reduction ; 

 and thereafter the quantity of "wild "going 

 annually to the world's market may be de- 

 scribed in Prior's line : — 



Fine by degrees, and beautifully less. 

 No one gives stronger encouragement to the 

 average plantation producer than does Mr. 

 E. L. Killick of the London " Financier " when 

 he writes in the issue of (February 16th, as 

 follows : — 



We know the rapid expansion which is taking 

 place in the manufacture of medium-priced 

 motor-cars, and we also know with tolerable 

 certaintyjjthat nine-tenths of the horsed-trade 

 vehicles now in the streets will in the very near 

 future be displaced with rubber-shod commer- 

 cial motor vehicles. We are three years nearer 

 such a consummation than we were in 1908, and 

 the price of rubber is the same ! It is impos- 

 sible to avoid asking the question — What is 

 going to happen in the meantime? Certainly 

 the price of rubber will not be a deterrent to 

 the manufacture of motor vehicles for trade or 

 any other purposes. If they can be put on 

 the market as efficient and economical substi- 

 tutes for the horse-drawn variety, as they cer- 

 tainly will be ere long, then rubber must and 

 will be had regardless of the cost. A high price 

 for the commodity, we know, carries many evils 

 in its train, but it is impossible to avoid the 

 conclusion that, should there be any appreciable 

 access to activity in the motor manufacturing 

 industry, a higher range of values for rubber is 

 practically certain. At lea^t, investors need 

 have no fears on the score of over-production 

 yet a while, and, incidentally, it may be pointed 

 out that the present is essentially a time to hold 

 firmly to all reputable Rubber Plantation shares. 

 Plantation-grown Rubber is already capturing 

 the markets, and as the quantity increases, and 

 especially as the price declines, the Amazonian 

 and African wild product must gradually dimi- 

 nish, no matter what the Brazilian authorities 

 and American capitalists may do. — In conclu- 

 sion, what is the approximate amount of paid- 

 up capital placed in Rubber-cultivating Com- 

 panies ? In March, 1907, the reckoning was 

 £5,250,000. Up to the end of August, 1910, 

 Messrs. Zorn & Leigh Hunt made up a statement 

 (for use in the Paper on " Ceylon, Malaya and 

 Java") which showed a total of £48,770,222; 

 while last year, the editor of the Straits Times 

 increased the amount to nearly £52,000,000. 

 This is for an industry dating with the first 

 Hevea plant in Ceylon in 1876 ; twelve years 

 later began systematic cultivation (in Malaya 

 especially) ; but only ten or twelve years of 

 planting activity, and yet it is to give in all 

 probability ten to twelve millions worth of raw 

 product to the manufacturers of Europe and 

 America during this year, 1912 ! 



