April, 1912.] 



297 



OILS AND FATS; 



THE UNCERTAINTY OP THE 

 POSITION OP COTTON SEED OIL. 



(Prom Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter, 

 Vol. 81, No. 7, February 12, 1912.) 



The condition of the cotton-seed oil 

 industry is one of more or less uncertain- 

 ty and widely divergent opinion. There 

 are many complications and many con- 

 siderations that are contradictory, and 

 there is the usual absence of definite 

 statistics as to the amount of seed in the 

 country ; the amount already marketed 

 and the amount that will eventually be 

 marketed. The one certain fact that is 

 known is that the crop of cotton was the 

 largest in the history of the country. 

 Both the Department of Agriculture 

 and the figures of the Census Bureau 

 place the total crop at well above 

 15,000,000 bales. This is taken to mean 

 more than 7,500,000 tons of seed produced. 

 There the value of statistics end. No 

 one knows how much of that seed will 

 come to the mills, how much will be 

 used as fertilizer, and how much will be 

 retained for planting. In normal years, 

 with the seed in good condition, one ton 

 will produce from 38 to 40 gallons of 

 crude oil, and this will produce from 35 

 to 36 gallons of refined oil. It all depends 

 upon the condition of the seed when 

 crushed and the quality of crude when 

 refined. These are some of the unknown 

 quantities in the equation, and these, 

 together with the uncertainty of the 

 marketing, are the points that are 

 causing the present wide variance of 

 opinions as to the future. 



To consider the size of the output first 

 of all, it has been the general opinion in 

 the trade that the production of oil this 

 season would be over rather than under 

 four and one-half million barrels. The 

 production last season was in the 

 neighbourhood of 3,300,000 barrels, so it 

 will be seen that the estimates of the 

 present crop are of an increase of more 

 than one-third. Last year's oil was 

 pretty thoioughly sold out at prices 

 much higher than those ranging at 

 present, but it is hard to believe that 

 38 



consumption this year will increase in 

 the same proportion as the estimated 

 increase in the output. It is also pointed 

 out by those, who expect lower prices, 

 that the Government's figures show that 

 there is an unusually large number of 

 hogs on the farms, and that the price of 

 lard, already low, which to an important 

 extent influences the price of cotton-seed 

 oil, is likely to go lower. It is figured 

 that these hogs will be rushed to market 

 on account of the advanced figures at 

 which corn is selling, thus depressing the 

 lard market and consequently holding 

 down the consumption and the price of 

 cotton-seed oil. It is also believed that 

 the unusual size of the olive crop will 

 have some effect upon the demand from 

 abroad for cotton-seed oil, and the pessi- 

 mists declare that they cannot see where 

 we will dispose of our record-breaking 

 production even at the present or lower 

 figures. It is estimated that from 70 to 

 80 per cent, of the seed produced last 

 year was taken to the mills, and it is 

 figured that with cotton - the staple — 

 selling much lower than last season, and 

 with the farmer inclined to hold for 

 higher pi ices, an equal percentage of 

 seed will be crushed this year. While it 

 is admitted that the price of seed is 

 low— selling now at from §18 to $19 per 

 ton, and a few weeks ago much lower — 

 the farmer will prater to dispose of it 

 rather than let it rot or use it for ferti- 

 lizer on land which has already pro- 

 duced so much cotton that the marketing 

 price is almost ruinous. 



On the other hand there is just as well 

 posted and as wise an element in the 

 trade which is inclined to view the 

 future with optimism, and which is of 

 the opinion that the present level of 

 prices is too low to be in keeping with 

 the real statistical position of the indus- 

 try. These reasoners doubt if the 

 eventual output of oil will reach four 

 million barrels, and many are of the 

 opinion that it will be but little more 

 than it was last season. To sustain these 

 calculations they point to the fact the 

 general condition of the seed being 



