Oils and Fats. 



298 



[April, 1912. 



sent to the mills is the worst ever 

 known. Continuous wet weather during 

 the fall and early winter throughout the 

 South is said to have caused tremendous 

 deterioration in the seed that was not 

 marketed early. The crushers are un- 

 willing to pay full prices for seed in this 

 condition, and it is claimed that many 

 farmers are refusing to sell at the best 

 offers that are made for the damaged 

 stocks, holding this class of seed is not 

 likely to improve the price as the 

 majority of the growers have but poor 

 facilities for storing, and seed once 

 thoroughly wet has but little chance to 

 dry. Then, again, it is claimed that the 

 quantity of oil produced by the refiners 

 will be far below the usual ratio with 

 the quantity of crude consumed. The 

 interstate Cotton-seed Crushers' Asso- 

 ciation and the New York Produce 

 Exchange— the principal speculative 

 market — have agreed upon nine per cent, 

 as the proper amount of loss to be calcu- 

 lated in the process of'refining. Reports 

 that are now coming from many Southern 

 mills indicate this percentage is being 

 exceeded. So much of the crude is off 

 grade on account of the inferior con- 

 dition of the seed, that refining losses 

 are running up to fifteen, twenty, and 

 one instance reported even to twenty- 

 nine per cent. This would mean very 

 much less oil per ton of seed, and a conse- 

 quent shortening of the yield in spite of 

 the great crop of cotton. At the normal 

 nine per cent, ratio of loss a ton of 

 cotton-seed should produce about thirty- 

 six gallons of refined oil ; at the less 

 ratio as at present reported this pro- 

 duction will not be more than thirty- 

 three or thirty-four gallons per ton. 

 Under such conditions it is argued, as a 

 manifest proposition, that either the 

 price of seed must decline or the price of 

 oil advance. 



So much for the production, now for 

 the consumption. The demand for prime 

 cotton-seed oil, it is claimed, never gave 

 better promise of being heavy. The 

 export movement is the most extensive 

 ever known. During the week ending 

 3rd February there were exported mo re 



than 67,000 barrels, the largest ever re- 

 corded in the history of the industry. 

 This fact was mentioned in the last issue 

 of the Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter. 

 The shipments up to this date, since the 

 season began, September 1, 1911, are more 

 than a half-million barrels, and are 

 more than 100,000 barrels in advance of 

 the shipments at the same period in 

 1909, when the total exports for the 

 season exceeded 1,000,000 barrels, a record 

 that has never been equalled. The oil 

 now going out is to fill orders placed last 

 summer and fall, but the demand from 

 abroad is still insistent and liberal con- 

 tracts are being placed for spring 

 delivery. The present range of prices is 

 parcicularly attractive to foreign con- 

 sumers, and the high figures at which the 

 majority of food products are selling has 

 a tendency to increase the consumption. 



At home the demand is said to be satis- 

 factory, The takings of the lard com- 

 pound manufacturers are fully up to 

 normal, and the demand from the oleo- 

 margarine makers has very considerably 

 increased owing to the fact that the 

 abnormally high prices at which butter 

 has been selling has vastly increased the 

 consumption of the oleo products. 



Thus it can be seen that there is much 

 uncertainty and difference of opinion as 

 to the future. This predominating un- 

 certainty has led to considerable activity 

 in the speculative local market. Longs 

 have unloaded or shifted the position of 

 their outstanding contracts to future 

 months, and many shorts have thought 

 it wise to cover at present ranges. In 

 the actual crushing industry the mills 

 have been inclined to tread very softly. 

 Experiences last season were not such as 

 to encourage recklessness. The majority 

 of the mills in the South will not sell 

 crude unless they have the seed in their 

 possession from which to make the oil. 

 The unusually inclement weather and the 

 impassable condition of many Southern 

 roads, since the first of the year, has 

 made the deliveries of seed so very slack 

 that many mills have been compelled to 

 close operations, or greatly to reduce 

 them- Offerings of crude have therefore 



