anct Magazine of the Ceylon Agricultural Society. 



177 



the effects of these disturbing influences, as 

 will be shown hy an examination of the facts 

 here dealt with. 



The immediate result of the Pure Tea law 

 was a sudden very large increase in the impor- 

 tations of tea, brought in from all available 

 sources in anticipation of the law becoming 

 effective, so that in 1897 the not importations 

 rose to nearly 113,000,000 pounds, the largest 

 figure yet recorded for any single year and 

 equal to an increase of 22 per cent, on the aver- 

 age net importations of the preceding five 

 years (1892 to 1896). Twelve months after this 

 first shock to the trade, or to be exact, ou the 

 14th of June, 1898, the war revenue measures 

 went into effect, including an import duty of 10 

 cents per pound on tea. This remained as a 

 threatening and disturbing factor to the trade 

 until the 1st , f January, 1903, for the war taxes 

 were in their nature of a temporary character, 

 and their withdrawal at an early date was ex- 

 pected. Finally the removal of the tax caused 

 almost as much disturbance to the regular 

 course of business as its imposition had done. 



With these facts before us, it becomes 

 clear that that to measure consumption by 

 importation we must go back to a period of 

 stability in the trade conditions and this 

 takes us to a time prior to 1897. Prior to 

 1897 the trade was in a fairly stable state, 

 and although importations fluctuated with 

 seasonal conditions, the variation was not very 

 great, tending generally to a steady increase 

 to meet the wants of an increasing popula- 

 tion. The average net imports for the five 

 years 1892-1896 was about 91,750,000 pounds, 

 and the average of the five preceding years 

 (1887-1891) 83 1-3 million pounds. The popu- 

 lation increased by more than 10,000,000 

 during the ten years 1887-1896, but the aver- 

 age net importations for the two periods 

 of five years each already referred to, 

 viz : 1887-1891 and 1892-1896 gave the 

 same figure per capital, viz.: 136 pounds, 

 so it seems probable that this represented 

 fairly closely 



THE CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA. 



Before proceeding on this assumption, the with- 

 drawals from bond during the period the import 

 duty was levied can be considered, as they 

 throw some light on the invisible supplies held 

 in the country at that time. Withdrawals from 

 bond represented tea that it was absolutely 

 necessary for the trade to* have to supplement 

 atocksJ held free of duty, and the difference bo- 



tween the incidence of withdrawals per capita 

 and 1"36 pounds, represented stocks. We need 

 not pursue this poiut as it is a moot question 

 whether or not consumption was affected by 

 higher prices. It is sufficient for the purpos e in 

 view to know that the withdrawals in 1901 were 

 about 82,500,000 pounds and those of 1902 fell to 

 about 72,750,OuO, a falling off of 10,000,000 

 pounds, which shows that every available ounce 

 of old stock was utilized to eke out requirements 

 until the new tea would once more be free of 

 duty. We have in addition to this evidence, the 

 general knowledge that invisible supplies were 

 exhausted and that the tea cleared after Jan. 1, 

 1903, wont into immediate consumption, the 

 country being denuded of stock. We thus have 

 a point from which we can start with a clean 

 slate. 



The importations in the five years ending 

 June 30, 1907, have been the largest recorded for 

 any 5 years in the history of the trade, aggregat- 

 ing about 493,500,000 pounds, which for the five 

 years gives an average of 98,750,000 pounds per 

 annum. But to this importation has to be 

 added stocks in bond on December 31, 1902, viz. 

 about 29,000,000 pounds, which brings up the 

 quantity of tea available after January 1 to 

 about 522,500,000 pounds and makes the average 

 per annum for the five years about 104,500,000 

 pounds. 



Since the normal period 1892-1896 tho popu!a= 

 tion has increased by about 14,000,000, and was 

 at the last Census a little over 84,000,000, so 

 tht«t on the basis of T30 pounds per head, the 

 annual consumption should be about 114,500,000, 

 and the figures we previously arrived at 

 (104,500,000) show a shortage of about 10,000,000 

 pounds per annum for five years. 



We have now to consider a factor which has 

 assumed importance within the last few years 

 The influence of the increase in the proportion 

 of India and Ceylon teas now imported cannot 

 be ignored, as they constituted about 19 per 

 cent, of these last season. In the five years 

 1903-1907 some 82,750,000 pounds of India and 



CEYLON TEA CAME INTO THE COUNTRY, 



equal to an average, on the live years, of say 

 16,500,000 pounds per annum. 



The strength of these teas is from 40 to 100 

 per cent, greater than those of teas from other 

 countries. Taken at 60 per cent, greater rela- 

 tive strength, that percentage must be added 

 to the general imports, viz. : (9,900,000 

 pounds) which very closely accounts for thq 



