184 The Supplement to the Tropical Agriculturist 



AN ANNUAL REPORT ON COCOA. 



London, Jan. 20.— The year 1907 is memorable 

 for the high level at which prices of almost all 

 descriptions of Cocoa have been maintained. 

 The cause of this advance is not far to seek. 

 Had it been due to large speculative transac- 

 tions, stocks would everywhere have increased 

 and deliveries would have fallen off, but last 

 year the exact contrary happened. Stocks at 

 the end of July were lower than for years past, 

 whilst one of the chief features of the market, 

 notwithstanding frequent rises in Manufac- 

 turers' quotations, has been the steady increase 

 in Consumption in the chief countries of Europe 

 and the United States, which however was 

 checked in the latter country by the monetary 

 difficulties during the Autumn to such an exten* 

 that the total Consumption for the year shows 

 an apparent falling off of about 6 per cent. 

 Perhaps the United Kingdom ought to be ex- 

 cluded, as the Duty payments do not show any 

 material increase, although in this country the 

 price has hardly been raised at all to the pub 

 lie. Seldom has there been so great a rise in 

 prices with so little outside speculation as was 

 the case last year, at any rate as far as the 

 London market was concerned. 



Consumption Overtakes Production. 

 There can be little doubt, however, that the 

 higher range of prices is due to the fact that 

 the Consumption of Cocoa throughout the world 

 has for a time overtaken Production, and whilst 

 the Production of Cocoa generally shows on 

 balance a moderate annual increase. Consump- 

 tion during the last few years has been going up 

 by leaps and bounds, more especially in Ger- 

 many and the United States. No doubt the 

 high prices will encourage increased Produc- 

 tion, but Cocoa takes several years to grow 

 before large crops can be obtained, and if 

 Consumption continues to be maintained, the 

 future of the market will probably depend 

 during the next few years on the output of the 

 Cocoa Plantations already in existence on the 

 Gold Coast and other Settlements in West 

 Africa. From the Gold Coast the exports in 1906 

 were 20,000,000 lb., against 11,000.000 lb. in 

 1905. For 1907 a further increase is expected. 



The market, which had already improved 

 considerably during the latter part ^of 1906, 

 opened at an advance of 20s to 25s on the prices 

 ruling in January, 1906, and, speaking generally, 

 had a hardening tendency during the first half of 

 the year, and with moderate fluctuations from 

 time to time, prices at the end of J uly showed 

 a further rise of 10a to 18s per cwt, 



As the Bahia crop begins in July, and ex- 

 ports from the larger countries of production 

 are heaviest during the latter months of th 

 year, Manufacturers usually allow their stocks 

 to run low in July, relying on replenishing 

 them as new crops come in, when prices 

 might naturally be expected to give way to 

 some extent under the influence of heavy sup- 

 plies. The very high prices obtainable had 

 induced operators to sell new crop Bahia for 

 July shipment to a large extent, and when 

 it was found that the crop was somewhat 

 later than usual, and that Planters were not 

 eager to sell, "Bears" tried to cover; this 

 led to a sudden and unexpected rise which 

 affected all descriptions of Cocoa, and prices 

 during August, September and October ad- 

 vanced from the high level then current a 

 further 20 to 25 per cent. At this time a 

 fair business was done to the Trade at from 

 115s to 120s for good to fine descriptions of 

 Trinidad and other West India, and up to 

 120s for fine St. Thome and superior Bahia. 

 In Guayaquil, Caraqez sold as high as 123s, 

 and fine summer Arriba up to 125s ; hardly 

 any sound cocoa was obtainable under 108s, 

 and some transactions were reported in Accra 

 at this prioe, whilst ordinary unfermented 

 Dominica realised 11 10s to 112s per cwt. 



What the course of the market would have 

 been if 



The Financial Crisis in The United States 



had not occurred it is impossible to say, but the 

 effect of this catastrophe, which developed in 

 November, has been that in addition to an ex- 

 ceptionally high bank rate here and elsewhere, 

 the largest consuming country has for a time 

 ceased to be a buyer in the markets of the 

 world. This encouraged uncovered sales of 

 Bahia, &c, for forward delivery at compara- 

 tively low rates ; as there was at the sam6 time 

 considerable pressure to sell Accra cocoa, prices 

 were forced down day by day until sales wera 

 made showing a drop of about 40s per cwt. 

 from the late highest point, and the market 

 had now fallen into such a sensitive state that 

 the news of considerable purchases made in 

 Bahia by English Manufacturers was sufficient 

 to frighten the " Bear" sellers into immediate 

 covering, and prices of " fair fermented " Bahia 

 were driven up from 68s to over 90s per 50 kilos 

 c.&f. within a week. The market afterwards be- 

 came dull and depressed, and prices have given 

 way again to some extent, the latest quotations 

 of cocoa, generally at the end of the year being 



