JULT, 1910.] 



45 



Livt Stock. 



as a rule, high prices mean fair profits. 

 It is at this stage that the chemist steps 

 in with his artificial product, and, if he is 

 able to offer something cheaper and 

 "just as good," he is at once granted a 

 hearing. A short time ago the idea of 

 manufacturing silk out of cellulose was 

 laughed at, just as, a few years earlier, 

 the claim to manufacture indigo from 

 tar was cheerfully debited to the ravings 

 of a madman. The laughing now shows 

 a tendency to subside, for at the present 

 moment there are seven artificial silk 

 factories at work in Germany, six in 

 Prance, three in Belgium, two in Italy, 

 one in England, with others to follow in 

 the countries named, and in Spain, 

 Russia and the United States. Now 

 these factories, at all events some of 

 them, are paying their way quite satis- 

 factorily, and, of course, the meaning of 

 this is that there is a demand at paying 

 rates for their products. As a matter of 

 fact, the output of the artificial silk con- 

 cerns is said to have increased within a 

 comparatively short period by over 500 

 per cent, yearly. 



But the silk manufacturer is not 

 alarmed. He cannot persuade himself 

 that anything useful can come out of an 

 artificial silk factory. At first he denied 

 that purchasers could be found for 

 cellulose yarn as a substitute for silk. 

 In this he now admits he was mistaken. 

 He next took consolation in the fact that 

 the tensile strength of the artificial rival 

 was so low that it could not be compared 

 with natural silk ; but he is slowly learn- 

 ing that this defect is being rapidly 

 removed, for the strength of the artificial 

 yarns is now claimed to be 70 per cent, of 

 that of the genuine article, and the 

 tendency is towards far greater strength. 

 But, above all, the silk manufacturer 

 telt secure in the fact that the artificial 

 factory people were unable to turn out 

 yarn anything nearly so fine as the silk 

 worm could spin. The reply to this is 

 that in a paper recently read before the 

 Society of Chemical Industry it was 

 admitted that the artificial factories had 

 now succeeded in spinning counts so fine 

 that they were now able to compete 

 directly with real silk. Moreover, it was 

 stated that the elasticity of the cellulose 

 filament was equal to that of the natural 

 product. 



If in so short a time the artificial 

 factories have been able to effect so 

 many improvements in their yarn and 

 to create a world-wide interest in their 

 industry it may not be unreasonable to 

 conjecture that further improvements 

 are in store, and that, despite the last 

 citadel of the silk manufacturer — that 

 artificial silk is intended for the manu- 



facture of novel articled and not as a 

 rival of natural silk— it is feared by the 

 disinterested onlooker that the real silk 

 industry has a serious battle to fight in 

 the near future for its very existence. 

 It would serve no useful purpose to 

 shirk the actual facts — as they generally 

 are shirked when an artificial rival 

 enters the field — for the sooner they are 

 realised and resolutely faced the better 

 it should be for all concerned. At the 

 moment one only hears the faint 

 murmurs of the distant commercial 

 storm, but there is no real doubt in most 

 quarters that the rumblings will grow 

 rapidly louder, or that in due time the 

 storm will burst over the raw silk 

 markets of the world, with what result 

 time alone can show. Just now the silk 

 manufacturer is sailing along over water 

 that is reasonably calm, and he produces 

 statistics to convince himsalf that his 

 position and bearings are secure, The 

 world's output of natural silk is about 

 23,500,000 kilos yearly, we are told; 

 whereas the total yearly output of the 

 artificial factories is only 3,000,000 kilos— 

 1,600,000 by the nitro-cellulose process 

 and 1,400,000 by the copper-ammonia pro- 

 cess. Well, this is 3,000,000 kilos of silk 

 more than the markets would have 

 been required to absorb had the artificial 

 people not been in existence ; and as the 

 output of their factories is growing with 

 surprising rapidity — at the rate, of 500 

 percent, per annum we have been told — 

 how long will it take, if only half that 

 rate of increase be maintained to over- 

 take the natural silk industry. And as 

 the world can only utilise a given 

 quantity of silk, whether it be real or 

 artificial, what is to become of the 

 balance and what price is it likely to 

 fetch ? 



To be sure, many things may happen 

 before this silk race is lost or won ; but 

 it is just as well, we repeat, to know the 

 facts and to keep them clearly in view. 

 It is not, of course, the fault of the silk 

 industry to be assailed from an un- 

 expected quarter. That fate may await 

 any industry. Take rubber as an ex- 

 ample. A vear or two ago the price was 

 3s. Qd. per lb., and as rubber can be pro- 

 duced at about Is. per lb. it will be readily 

 seen that even at that recent period of 

 its history it was returning a very 

 handsome profit. To-day it is selling at 

 the almost fabulous price of lis. per lb., 

 and there is a wild rush for anything of 

 the nature of a rubber plantation share. 

 The keen demand for rubber that has 

 resulted in this high price has been 

 largely brought about by the increasing 

 use of the motor car in all parts of the 

 world, and it is not at all improbable, as 



