THE SUPPLEMENT TO THE 



Tropical Agriculturist and Magazine of the C. A. 8. 



Compiled and Edited by A. M. & J. FERGUSON. 

 No. 6,] DECEMBEB, 1910. [Vol. VII. 



RUBBER CROPS FQR "SOUTHERN 

 ASIA" A FEW YEARS HENCE: 



IS 22(1,000 ACRES OF RUBBER TO 

 BE THE MAXIMUM FOR CEYLON? 

 AND WHAT IS TO BE THE 

 EXPORT FOR 1916 AND 1920? 

 Mr. H. K. Rutherford estimates 36,000 tons 

 of rubber as the possible outturn for the Malay 

 States in 1916, and it is asked if a local estimate 

 (after due enquiry) would shew as much as 

 18,000 tons for Ceylon. Considering; how far 

 the Malay States already exceed Ceylon — with 

 an export five times as great— it does not, in 

 the face of present experience, seem likely that 

 Ceylon should creep up until, by 1916, it should 

 shew au export equal to half that of the Fede- 

 rated Malay States. On the other hand, it 

 will be found that if dependence is to be 

 placed on the acreage returns there must be 

 great additions to the Ceylon exports during 

 the next few years. For this year, the rub- 

 ber area with trees six years old and over 

 is given in the " Directory " at 12,000 acres, 

 and the total export cannot exceed 1,250 tons. 

 But with more than double this acreage in bear- 

 ing in 1911 (namely 25,000 acres) the export next 

 year should be well up to the estimate of 2,500 

 tons ; and so on, perhaps, until 1914, when the 

 estimate given is 10,000 tons from 150,000 acres 

 in bearing. How much advance can be credited 

 to 1915 and 1916 is the next problem ? Here we 

 may venture to quote from the " Directory," 

 some independent estimates. Mr. H. K. Ruther- 

 ford expected (some years ago) that 3,520 tons 

 should represent " plantation rubber from Asia 

 in 1910; 5,800 tons for 1911 and 9,820 tons for 

 1912"; while the late Mr, J. B. Carruthers ex- 

 pected that by 1912 Malaya would produce from 

 5,470 to 8,213 tons, reckoning on 1 lb. or 1£ lb. 

 per tree. But it is now plain that the Malay 

 States have surprised everyone and are likely to 

 70 



outstrip all the foregoing estimates. For this 

 year, indeed, u Asia " must supply double the 

 tonnage given in the lowest estimate ; and, if the 

 exports of the F. M, S. have to run on from, 

 perhaps, 5,000 tons in J 910 to 36,000 tons in 

 1916, it must be evident that the yearly increase 

 henceforward will have to be very considerable. 

 Clearly an average addition to the export of as 

 much as 5,000 tons yearly will be necessary for 

 the F.M.S. to reach 36,000 tons for 1916. Now 

 in the case of Ceylon, if 12,000 acres with trees 

 in bearing (6 years old was the age taken in the 

 estimates) have given about 1,250 tons in 1910, 

 tho export to November 21st was 1,221 tons) 

 what should be the crops from 25,000 acres in 

 1911, from 40,000 acres in 1912, 100,000 in 1913, 

 150,000 in 1914, 180,000 in 1915 and 200,000 acres 

 (of trees 6 years old) in 1916 ? It may be asked 

 if 12,000 acres in bearing (trees 6 years and over) 

 in 1910 give about 1,250 tons (2,800,0001b.) for 

 export, how much should 200,000 or even 180,000 

 acres (trees rising from 6 to 20 or more years) 

 yield in proportion ? The safe answer, in view 

 of the many more of the older trees in 1916, 

 would surely be "fifteen " times more than the 

 yield of 1910. That would be 18,750 tons ! But 

 no doubt, cautious as well as practical men may 

 suggest many contingencies possibly affecting 

 so good a yield, year by year, especially when 

 dealing with a vastly extended acreage. No doubt; 

 but we can only show what the figures indicate, 

 allowing everyone interested to make his own 

 deductions. A correspondent has reminded us 

 of the importance of giving publicity to fair 

 (even if they seem full) estimates, in order to 

 afford information needed for those who may 

 even now be meditating— in different parts of 

 the East or in Africa, Southern or Central 

 America and Mexico— to plant further exten- 

 sive areas of rubber. No doubt, rubber con- 

 sumption is bound to increase as the produc- 

 tion is increased and as the prices fall ; and 



