554 



The Supplement to the Tropical Agriculturist 



when we think of Java, Sumatra, the Malay 

 Peninsula (outside the F.M.S.), India, Burma, 

 Borneo, &c, we may feel assured that the 

 total export of rubber for all " Southern Asia" 

 in a few years must be represented by a very 

 big figure. Here, we may quote from a "local 

 writer" (mentioned in "The Directory") who, 

 some years ago, "estimated that 220,000 acres 

 will be the maximum area planted with rubber 

 in Ceylon " (we are up to 200,000 acres now) 

 and "with 140 trees to an acre as an average, 

 " and with 1£ lb. per tree yield per annum, 

 " this will give an export of 20,000 tons by 

 " 1920; while the Malay States then may give 

 " 40,000 tons " (double Ceylon !) ; "Java, Suma- 

 tra, Borneo, 15,000 tons -a total of 75,000 tons." 

 This authority took no note of Southern India, 

 Travancore especially, and Burma, Hew Guinea, 

 &c. And when we add to all these, the ex- 

 pectation of Western authorities who pin their 

 faith to an increasing production from Mexico, 

 and from several States southwards to Brazil, 

 not to speak of the West Indies and Africa 

 (with its "wild" and "planted" rubbers), 

 we have, indeed, a big problem before the 

 man who tries to solve it, in order to esti- 

 mate the World's Production or Outturn of 

 all kinds of rubber in the year 1916 and, on 

 year by year, up to 1920. We shall be glad to 

 hear what planters and critics may say as to 

 the figures given above, more especially those 

 relating to Ceylon. But, still more, should we 

 urge the Committee of the Planters' Association 

 to take in hand the framing of an estimate (on 

 the data available or which might bo collected) 

 for 1916 for Ceylon to go alongside of Mr. 

 Rutherford's figures for the Federated Malay 

 States. It is nonsense to say that over or under- 

 estimating, for a year so far off as 1916, can have 

 any influence on prices of rubber ; nor much 

 appreciable influence, we suspect, on existing 

 plans to plant more rubber either in the East 

 or West. But, in view of Governor Sir John 

 Anderson having raised the question as to 

 rubber acreage and yield in the Malay States, 

 which led Mr. Rutherford to compile what 

 look like reliable figures in both caserc, so ought 

 there to be an attempt to give a similar esti- 

 mate in the case of Ceylon. 



Since the above was written, wehave received 

 the Malay Moil of Nov. 17th, with the careful 

 and elaborate calculations that journal has made, 

 which go to justify Sir John Anderson to a 

 large extent in his " 70,000 tons " estimate. We 

 reproduce the article on this page and need only 

 remark that it takes no account (except in the 

 last line) of possibilities of disease or difficulties 

 in obtaining an adequate labour supply. 



THE F.ffl.S. RUBBER OUTPUT. 



ESTIMATES UP TO 1916. 

 The statement of His Excellency Sir John 

 Anderson at the-Agri Horticultural Show— that 

 in six years' time the Malay Peninsula would 

 be turning out 70,000 tons of rubber— seems to 

 have caused a flutter in the dovecots at Home. 

 Mr. H K Rutherford, a director of various com- 

 panies, has criticised His Excellency's com- 

 putations in more than one letter to the Press. 



In opposition to Mr. Rutherford's views we 

 regard His Excellency's estimate as more likely 

 to prove a conservative one, and we propose to 

 support our opinion by figures. With regard 

 to the total acreage now uuder rubbor, wliich 

 His Excellency estimates at 400,000 acres, 

 the total F.M.S. acreage under rubbor at the 

 end of last year was 196,953. Will anybody 

 seriously auggest — anybody who has lived in the 

 country or visited it during this year — that there 

 has not been a considerable additional acreage 

 planted during the past 10 months ? Further, 

 though no official statistics are available, we 

 know that Johore has a larger acreage now 

 open than has Negri Sembilan. Last year's 

 figure for the latter was 31,495 acres. The 

 1908 figure for the Straits was 73,000 acres. 

 There have been large acreages opened since 

 then, and there has been considerable planting 

 activity in Kelantan and Kedah. We think that 

 there is every reason — in the absence of official 

 figures — to accept H.E.'s estimate of the acre- 

 age open as approximately accurate. 



As regards the question of crops, we shall 

 have to confine ourselves mairly to the F.M.S. 

 His Excllency estimates 70,000 tons in 1916 for 

 the whole Peninsula. Let us work out an esti- 

 mate of the output of the F.M.S. in that year. 

 Our method of computation is one which, there 

 is no harm in saying, was put before us some 

 time ago by no less an authority than the late. 

 Director of Agriculture, F.M.S. To estimate a 

 particular year's crop we first take the previous 

 year's crop. It is generally agreed that an acre- 

 age tapped in one year will give about one- 

 fifth more in the next. To the previous year's 

 figure, therefore, we add tvventy per cent. We 

 have further to add the output from tho new 

 acreage coming into bearing. Th9 official sta- 

 tistics show that the average number of trees 

 to the acre is rather over 150. At the end of 

 1908 these were 26,000,000 trees to 168,046 

 acres. The average output per tapped trees 

 all over the Peninsula in 1908 was just under 

 two lb. Let us call it l\ lb., and be on the 

 safe side. We thus arrive at an output of 

 225 lb. per acre. Again let us be on the safe 

 side, and adopt the conservative figure of 200 lb. 

 To the previous year's figure, therefore, plus 

 twenty percent., we add the yield from the new 

 acreage coming into bearing on a basis of 200 lb. 

 to the acre, and thus arrive at our estimate for 

 the year. Let us see how this system works out 

 in practice. In 1908 the total F.M.S. crop was 

 3,155,600 1b. Under our system, the 1909 crop 

 should have been 5,398,720 ib. It actually was 

 6,083,493 lb, a figure which seems to indicate that 

 the system does not err on the side of liberality. 

 Now the planted area in the F.M.S. at the end 

 of last year was made up roughly as follows : — 

 Planted acres 

 Prior to 190i .. 8048 



1904 . . 8000 



1905 . . 24C00 



1906 . . 42000 

 19U7 . . 40000 



1908 . . 460U0 



1909 . . 2t>905 



196953 



We assume tapping is not started until the 

 fifth year. We know the 1908 and 1909 outputs, 



