August, 1908.] 



109 



Saps and Exudations- 



Only a few years ago it was stated in 

 a Government publication that the 

 entire area of land suitable for rubber 

 in the island of Ceylon did not exceed 

 10,000 acres. That this estimate was in- 

 correct is shown by the actual area now 

 planted. This area increased between 

 the years 1890-1898 at the rate of 50 acres 

 per year, and in the last named year 

 there were about 750 acres planted. It 

 took three years more before the acre- 

 age rose to 2,500 acres, but in the last 

 few years it has increased very rapidly. 

 During the last two years the plantiug 

 has suddenly increased largely in the 

 entire Indo-Malayan region, and it can 

 therefore be hoped that in a few years 

 hence plantation rubber from the East 

 will become of some importance on the 

 world's market. 



Only quite recently I had a letter from 

 London, in which it was pointed put that 

 the price of crude rubber was liable to 

 decrease very soon, on account of the 

 large supply due from the " vast rubber 

 plantations " in the East. As seen from 

 the statistics given above the total area 

 is not yet so " vast " as might be expected 

 from the exaggerated statements issued 

 from London headquarters. 



With a total area under rubber at the 

 present time of over 355,000 acres, we 

 must naturally expect in six or eight 

 years hence a large supply of plantation 

 rubber. But admitting that the supply 

 of wild rubber would not decrease in 

 that time, while on the other hand the 

 demand would keep on increasing, there 

 is not much to fear from a decline in 

 prices. 



The present output of plantation rub- 

 ber does not exceed 600 tons. If we con- 

 sider tnat the yield per acre is 300 lbs., 

 the supply of plantation rubber from the 

 present area planted would twelve years 

 hence be nearly 55,000 tons per annum. 

 During the last dozen years the increase 

 of the consumption of rubber has been 

 on an average 8 per cent, per annum, and 

 this average is increasing rather than 

 decreasing. If we carry on this increase 

 for another dozen years, we find that 

 twelve years hence the need for rubber 

 would be close to 175,000 tons. We have 

 no reason to suppose that the supply 

 of wild rubber twelve years hence would 

 be greater than to-day. On the contrary, 

 everything tends to show that the pro- 

 duction has reached its limit, and will 

 decrease instead of augment in the 

 future. The present area planted would 

 thus not nearly supply the balance of 

 the consumption, provided the output 

 of wild rubber twelve years hence was 

 still 65,000 tons. 



We need not think that the planting of 

 rubber has come to a standstill. Much 

 more land will be planted under this crop 

 all over the Tropics, but very large plan- 

 tations are needed to supply the increased 

 demand. It is therefore evident that we 

 have not much to fear from over-produc- 

 tion for many years to come. 



It is not many years since rubber plant- 

 ing was looked upon by the ordinary 

 investor as a very hazardous under- 

 taking, and those who were spending 

 money on rubber planting were con- 

 sidered visionaries. At the present time 

 many rubber plantations are coming 

 into bearing, and are for the first 

 time demonstrating the truth of the 

 ideas of the pioneers. Plantations in 

 Ceylon have already paid as much as 

 40-50 per cent, in annual dividends. 

 Some Mexican plantations have been 

 able to pay as much as 15 per cent, on 

 the invested capital from rubber obtained 

 on the estate. 



The ever-increasing areas under rubber 

 indicate that this industry is able to 

 draw capital, and this is perhaps the best 

 proof that its propects are good, as 

 capital is a fairly correct index regard- 

 ing such matters. The fact that rubber 

 planting has gained much notoriety 

 through capital being obtained for the 

 ostensible purpose of exploiting rubber 

 plantations, but in reality has been 

 diverted to the private use of dishonest 

 promoters is not proof against the possi- 

 bility of cultivating rubber, or against 

 the profitableness of rubber culture. The 

 public has become suspicious towards all 

 rubber planting companies, and many 

 legitimate concerns have suffered. 



If we investigate the causes which have 

 produced some of the most disastrous 

 and sensational failures of rubber planta- 

 tions, we will find that in every case 

 such a Company was not promoted as a 

 bona fide and legitimate enterprise for 

 the purpose of building up a successful 

 plantation, but that the whole scheme 

 was intended to benefit the promoters. 

 In some cases the home office expenses 

 have exhausted the entire capital, and 

 little or nothing has been left for the 

 development of the plantation. Some 

 of these plantations have been started 

 on soil which is in every way unsuitable 

 tor the cultivation ofiubber. On others 

 the development work has been greatly 

 overpaid to the benefit of one or ano- 

 ther interested person. Very often the 

 management has lacked all the experi- 

 ence of tropical agriculture, and some of 

 the plantations do not snow a result 

 c orresponding to the outlay. 



