THE SUPPLEMENT TO THE 



Tropical Agriculturist and Magazine of the C. A. 8. 



No. 3, 



SEPTEMBER, 1908. 



[Voi,. III. 



THE FUTURE OF RUBBER. 



WITH OVER 400,000 ACRES NOW PLANTED IN SOU- 

 THERN ASIA, HOW MANY TONS SHOULD BE 

 PRODUCED BY 1914 AND 1920 ? 



In 1903, Mr. Donald Mackay at our request, 

 made an estimate of the rubber trees growing in 

 the Malay States and Straits Settlements. He put 

 the total at 3 millions of trees with only 100,000 

 then 5 to 6 years old, the rest from 4 years to a 

 few months. Now, if they have all survived, the 

 whole 3 millions should be either yielding latex 

 or getting ready very shortly to do so. It is 

 from this number of trees that the current 

 year's export of probably very near 3 million lb. 

 (1,300 tons) of rubber is being harvested. How 

 many rubber trees had Ceylon in 1903 p Pos- 

 sibly about a million of all ages, chieny new 

 planted, for we could not make out that there 

 were then more than 70,000 tive to six years old. 

 These are now ten to eleven years old and give 

 much of the rubber that goes to make up the 

 350 tons or 794,000 lb. that may possibly be 

 shipped from Ceylon this year. Altogether we 

 count on 350,000 trees this year as yielding more 

 or less of latex. This ought to be nearly 

 doubled next year with 650 tons— and so on, say, 

 until by 1914, trees growing over 150,000 acres 

 (said to be planted up last year) should be giving 

 10,000 tons. This is counting on -20 million trees 

 being then available and averaging 1J lb. per 

 tree. In the same year the Malay Peninsula 

 should be good for at least 16,000 tons and the 

 rest of Asia (Java, Sumatra, Borneo, India and 

 Burmah) for 6,000 tons— or 32,0:0 tons in all ; 

 and by 1920 this should be doubled if moderate 

 expectations are realised even if the price goes 

 down to 3s., aye, or 2s. per lb. It is extremely 

 interesting to remember that Mr. H. K. Ruther- 

 ford, in January, 1905, estimated that there 

 should be harvested in 1910 from "planted" 

 trees in Asia about 3,520 tons (8,000,000 lb.) If 

 Ceylon gives 1,200 tons two years hence, Malaya 



86 



should certainly be good for more than the 

 balance of 2,320 tons. For 1911 Mr. Ruther- 

 ford's estimate was 13 million lb. or 5,800 tons 

 and Ceylon should be good for nearly 2,000 tons 

 of this from the 25,000 acres planted up to 1904. 

 For 1912, Mr. Rutherford estimated 22 millions 

 lb, or 9,82n tons of Ceylon which should contri- 

 bute 3,500 tons gathered from trees growing over 

 40,000 acres, dating from 1905 and previous 

 years. Curiously enough Mr. Carruthers puts 

 the Malay States down for 5,425 tons at 1 lb. a 

 troeor 8,215 tons if H lb. a tree in 1912 To 

 turn to the planted extent at the present time, 

 here is the best information available : — 



Ceylon 



Malay Peninsula 

 Java 

 Sumatra 

 liorneu 



India and Burraal) 

 For S. Asia = 



180,000 acres. 



150,000 „ 

 58,000 „ 

 2:),000 ,, 

 7,' 00 „ 

 28,000 „ 



446,000 



Mr. Carruthers' returns at the end of 1907 

 pointed to 150,0C0 acres as then planted in the 

 peninsula. The recent Java Congress gave us 

 58,000 acres ; but much of this is the planting 

 of ficus by Government. Sumatra's is a safe 

 estimate on good authority. Messrs. Figgis & 

 Co. of London put Borneo at in, 000 in January 

 last : we think this too high. Travancore had 

 13,000 acres planted when Mr. Drummond 

 Deane reported some time ago, and from one 

 division of Burmah we had a return of 4,500 

 acres That leaves 10,500 acres for the rest of 

 Southern India and other divisions of Burmah. 

 Make an ample allowance for failures, and yet it 

 must be owned that, from 1914 onwards, this 

 " planted area " should mean many thousands of 

 trees in rubber. Then we have to take into 

 account planting in Mexico, in Central and 

 South America, in some parts of Africa and in 

 some of the islands of the seas. Mexico owes 

 much to American enterprise and capital, and 

 yet Dr. Olson-Seder with his 95,000 acres must 

 be confounding land, taken up for rubber, with 



