394 



The Supplement to the Tropical Agriculturist, 



in his interest to secure the beet possible 

 knowledge to assist him. We have had a 

 thorough weeding out of our plantation managers 

 in Mexico, and we can say that the outlook 

 today is good. Our Planters' Association stands 

 first of all for honesty, and it has been formed 

 for the purpose of co-operation between our 

 planters, for the exchange of ideas and ex- 

 periences. We have much to learn, and we can 

 only learn quickly by co-operation. The man, 

 who statesthat he knows everything about rub- 

 ber culture, thereby shows his gross ignorance. 



"Another question is that of the so-called 

 home end. In a great number of instances 

 most of the capital invested in a plantation 

 company has been spent at the home end, 

 and only a small proportion has ever reached 

 the plantation. It is impossible under snch 

 circumstances, to expect a success." — India- 

 Rubber Journal, Aug. 24. 



RUBBER OUTPUT: CEYLON AND 

 MALAYA. 



A leading article in the Financier (Aug. 21st) 

 quoted below deals with the opinion ex- 

 pressed in a recent Ceylon Observer editorial 

 on the future prospects of rubber. The Fin- 

 ancier does not believe in so much need for 

 caution in rubber planting as we recommended. 

 Caution in view of possible over- production 

 would, it says, be all very well, if we were 

 certain that the South American output will 

 go on at its present rate, but unless Brazil 

 steps forward with much more rapidity than 

 can bp supposed likely at present, the chances 

 are that, while the world's consumption of 

 rubber will enormously increase, the Amazon 

 production of rubber will decrease. This is all 

 very well, and has a pleasing tinge of hope 

 abort it, very delightful to the mind of the 

 investor who has gone in for the rubber Com- 

 panies of the Middle East, but expsrientia 

 doce* and Ceylon has had too many ghastly 

 warnings as to the evils of over-production not 

 to be careful about going too fast or far even 

 with such a promising thing as rubber. As 

 the writer suggests, probably we shall hear 

 something on this subject during the Exhibi- 

 tion fortnight. Malaya men started much 

 earlier than Ceylon, practically absorbing three 

 editions of our "All about Indiarubber," in 

 the 'eighties and 'nineties, and planting up land 

 accordingly. 



RUBBER ESTIMATES: MALAYA 

 AND CEYLON. 



It is interesting to compare the outputs from 

 Ceylon and the Malay States over a term of 

 years, and in doing so even the most casual 

 ohserver will probably be struck with the way 

 in which the Peninsula has forged ahead as a 

 producer, although in 1907 the acreages in the 

 Colony and in Malaya under rubber were, to all 

 intents and purposes, identical. In Malaya, 

 however, there is not only a much higher per- 

 centage of matured rubber, but the trees reach 

 a tapping size about twelve months sooner than 

 they do m most of the districts in Ceylon. The 



heaviest planting in Malaya comfortably ante- 

 dated that in Ceylon, where in 1905 40,000 acres 

 were credited to rubber, and this area had in- 

 creased to 150,01)0 acres in 1907 A wi iter in 

 the Ceylon U' server, while discussing the ques- 

 tion of the probable output of plantation rub- 

 ber in 1908, gives the following table, whi„h 

 succinctly summarises the position . — 



Exports of Rubber in Tons. 





From Malay 





From Ceylon. 



States. 



Tjtal. 



Tons. 



Tons. 



Tons. 



1904 . . 35 







1905 ... 75 



130 



205 



1S>06 .. 150 



460 



610 



19' 17 .. 250 



885 



1,086 



1903 (Estimated) .. 350 



1,800 



1,650 



It will be seen that the Observer's estimated 

 aggregate for 19o8 is considerably smaller than 

 the total we incline to regard as easily possible, 

 but even these more moderate figures admit of 

 an anticipated increase in the output from the 

 two chief Middle East rubber-producing cen- 

 tres of some 600 tons during the current year. 



In concluding his consideration of this matter, 

 The Ceylon, Observer writer says: — "As regards 

 the future, no special increase is expected for 

 the next two or three years ; but by 1912, what 

 may we expect to see from the 40,000 acres 

 planted in Ceylon up to 1905, and still more 

 from the 100,000 acres of rubber planted up to 

 1906 and the 150,000 acres up to 1907? Six 

 years hence, by 1913 to 1914, an export re- 

 quiring five figures in tons may surely be ex- 

 pected, with a very much larger return for the 

 Malay Peninsula. If again five years later 

 Southern Asia is expected (o be producing (or 

 capable of producing) "plantation rubber" 

 equal in quantity in one year to the present 

 consumption of the world, it is surely time now 

 to stop planting any more rubber, until it is seen 

 what effect on prices largely-increasing exports 

 from the East from 1911 onwards may pro- 

 duce.'' The Observer is correct enough in its 

 implied contention if we aie to assume that 

 in 1919 or 1920 the South American output 

 continues at or about its present level of, say, 

 34,000 tons per annum. But unless affairs march 

 with considerably greater rapidity in Brazil in 

 the future than they have done in the past, the 

 chances are all against what may be termed 

 the Amazon output being maintained at any- 

 thing near the levels of recent years. Further, 



IN TWELVE YEARS' TIME THE WORLD'S 

 CONSUMPTION 



of rubber will have increased enormously, and 

 to put the consumption in that year at 120,000 

 tons is not to take undue liberties with prob- 

 abilities. The United States' supply of raw rub- 

 ber will be less dependent ten or twelve years 

 hence on the forest resources of South America, 

 for, unless the extensive planting in Mexico 

 and some of the more Southern Republics has 

 been exceedingly ill done (and we know that 

 much of it is uot), American and Canadian 

 manufacturers will have a surer and a cheaper 

 source from whence to draw their necessary 

 supplies. When the natural rubber regions of 

 South America are more opened up and settled, 

 and better means of speedy and economical 

 transport are provided, Brazil will become a 

 really serious competing factor. But as matters 



