THE SUPPLEMENT TO THE 



Tropical Agriculturist and Magazine of the C. A. 8. 



Compiled by A. M. & J. FERGUSON. 



No. 1] OCTOBEE, 1909. [Vol. V, 



RUBBER OUTPUT ESTIMATES. 



DP TO 1913: A MALAYA VIEW. 

 In the present rubber boom time, when prac- 

 tically every day a new notation is announced, 

 the thoughts of the cautious naturally turn to 

 the possibility of over-production. It may be 

 interesting, therefore, and instructive to collect 

 the data at our disposal and to estimate what 

 the output of plantation rubber may reasonably 

 be expected to be during the next few years — 

 say, up to 1913, the year in which all the trees 

 planted up to the end of 1908 will be tappable. 

 For the purposes of this enquiry, from which, 

 of course, only approximate conclusions can be 

 drawn, it will be necessary to assume that con- 

 ditions in the rubber producing countries, 

 such as the number of trees to the acre, the 

 growth of the trees, freedom from pest, and the 

 amount and quality of rubber obtainable at a 

 given age, are identical. The countries to be 

 taken seriously into consideration are, in addition 

 to the F.M.S. and S.S., Ceylon, Java, Sumatra 

 and Borneo. From the annual report we find the 

 planted acreage in the F.M.S. at the end of last 

 year was 168,000, and in the S. S. 73,000. The two 

 Ceylon papers— the "Times" and the Observer 

 — are substantially in agreement as to the 

 acreage under rubber in Ceylon, which they 

 estimate roughly at 180,000 acres. Java and 

 Sumatra possess about 40,000 acres planted and 

 Borneo about 10,000. So that we have 



acres. 



F.M.S. and KS. 240,000 

 Ceylon 180,000 

 Java and Sumatra 40,000 

 Borneo 10,000 



Total 470,000 



Now it is held by those whose opinion carries 

 weight that an acreage tapped in one year will 

 yield about one-fifth more in the next. To esti- 

 mate, therefore, a year's crop, it is necessary to 

 take the previous year's crop, plus 20 per cent., 



and add the estimated crop from the new 

 acreage which comes into bearing. A glance 

 at the statistics given in the Director of Agri- 

 culture's report of the acreage planted and 

 the number of trees shows that the average is, 

 roughly, 150 trees to the acre. During last 

 year the average yield per tapped tree all 

 over this Peninsula was 1 lb. 15| ozs. To be 

 on the safe side, we may estimate the yield at 

 1J lb. per tree, which gives a yield per acre of 

 225 lb, and, allowing for wastage, we arrive at a 

 minimum yield per acre of 200 lb. Nowthe F.M. 

 S. in 1908 exported 3,155,600 lb, or 1,413 tons. 

 Eight thousand acres, planted in 1904, come into 

 bearing this year, so that, adding 20 per cent, to 

 last year's total, and estimating the outputof the 

 new average at 8,000x200, we arrive at an esti- 

 mate of 5,398,720 lb, or 2,400 tons, for this year. 

 The export has already reached 3,000,0001b, 

 so it fairly certain that the estimate is a conser- 

 vative one. In 1910 24,000 more acres come into 

 bearing, and by the same method the total out- 

 put will exceed 11,000,000 lb, or, say 5,000 tons. 

 In 1911 the acreage is increased by 42,000, 

 and our estimate places the output at nearly 

 22,000,000 lb, or 9,600 tons. Forty thousand 

 acres more come in in 1912, and the estimated 

 output is 34,000,000 lb, or 15,000 tons. Finally 

 in 1913 



the whole of the area planted at the end of 

 1908 will be in bearing and the estimate is just 

 on 50,000,000 lb of rubber, or 

 22,000 TONS. 

 By taking the number of trees planted at the 

 end of 1908— 26, 000, 000 -and estimating 2 1b. 

 yield from each tree, less wastage, we 

 arrive at much the same total. Now if we 

 assume for the sake of argument that the 

 other producing countries are doing exactly 

 what we are doing, a computation of the total 

 output from all the countries named, possessing 

 a total acreage of 470,000, is merely a question 

 of arithmetic, and works out at about 



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