December, 1909.] 



535 



Miscellaneous t 



necessary* when attempting any valu- 

 ation of a crop, to decide somewhat ar- 

 bitrarily, and on the merits of the parti- 

 cular case, whether the valuation is to be 

 based on the prices current in the year of* 

 harvest or on those of the following 

 year. It is found on study of the statis- 

 tics of exportation that, of the crops for 

 which forcasts are prepared, cotton, 

 jute, rice, sesamum, groundnut and tea 

 are exported mainly in the years in 

 which they are produced, while wheat, 

 linseed and rape and mustard are mainly 

 exported in the following year. There- 

 fore any estimate of the value of crops 

 in the former group should be based 

 on the prices of the year of cultivation, 

 while those in the latter group must be 

 valued on the prices of the next year. 



But in India the mere establishment 

 of the prices to be used in any one year 

 is a matter of difficulty. It is compara- 

 tively easy to ascertain the average de- 

 clared values of exports. But in India 

 there are no export duties except on rice 

 and rice flour. Where no export duties 

 exist, there is commonly no great strict- 

 ness in ascertaining the correctness of 

 declared values. These are consequ- 

 ently not very reliable as a basis of 

 valuation, Moreover, it has been re- 

 cently shown in respect of wheat that 

 the internal price at harvest time is 

 lower than in later months — the reason 

 being that cultivators are obliged to 

 realise a part of their produce to meet 

 the demand for rent and for payments 

 in respect of loans. The export season 

 terminates not so much because of the 

 termination of demand for export as 

 because of the gradual rise of the inter- 

 nal price beyond export level as soon as 

 the immediate monetary requirements 

 have been satisfied. It follows that ex- 

 port values are substantially lower than 

 the average internal prices; and since the 

 exports of wheat represent from one- 

 eighth to one- seventh of the total crop, 

 it would be quite unsound to value the 

 I'esidual seven-eighths or six-sevenths on 

 the relatively low declared values of 

 the exports. The same considerations 

 apply to other forms of produce in 

 varying degree ; so it i$ clear that in 

 selecting a basis of calcualation internal 

 prices must be preferred to declared 

 values. 



A fortnightly record of wholesale 

 interna] prices is available in India in 

 respect of all but one of those crops for 

 which forecasts are published. The 

 exception is groundnuts. Therefore 

 internal prices are mainly relied on in 

 the following calculations, but the value 

 of the groundnut crop is estimated on 

 the basis of the export values. 



It will at once be objected that an 

 export value is not admissible even in 

 a single case, seeing that such value 

 is commonly swelled by transport and 

 trading charges. This is true , but it 

 will be seen later on that there are 

 sundry gaps in the data available re- 

 garding Indian crops as a whole, and 

 that the deductions to be drawn from 

 the calculations now attempted must 

 be confined to a particular point which 

 will not be to any material degree 

 affected by the use of export values in 

 the cp> c o of a commodity of which so 

 arge a proportion is shipped. 



By any one who brings, to* the exami- 

 nation of the statements below, a cer- 

 tain knowledge of Indian conditions it 

 will also be objected that there are 

 some other crops not included, although 

 returns of acreage are available in res- 

 pect of them. The objection is good, 

 but the absence of any annual estimates 

 of outturn for these crops excludes them 

 absolutely, and it is their exclusion that 

 prevents any estimation of the total 

 value of Indian agricultural produce. 



Since then it is impossible to arrive 

 at any estimate of the total value of 

 Indian produce with such accuracy as 

 to serve any practical purpose, it might 

 seem useless to carry out a partial 

 valuation. So far as any single year is 

 concerned it would be useless to do so ; 

 but when the calculation is made for 

 successive years certain interesting facts 

 are disclosed in comparison. 



Anything that bears upon prices in 

 India has interest at the present time. 

 The extent to which shortage of crops 

 in recent years is responsible for the 

 rise in Indian prices is indeterminate. 

 But it is known that as a general rule 

 shortage of crop is accompanied by a 

 rise of price ; and it is interesting to 

 ascertain how far the rise of price com- 

 pensates the producer for the reduction 

 in the outturn. It is conceivable that 

 as regards some monopoly crop in great 

 demand the handling of a small quan- 

 tity at enhanced rates might be more 

 profitable than the handling of a large 

 quantity at lower rates. But as a 

 general rule we should scarcely expect 

 to find a contraction of outturn other- 

 wise than injurious to the cultivator- 

 altogether apart from the fact that a 

 very substantial portion of his outturn 

 has to go in forced sale at low rates 

 for the payment of rent and interest. 



All we can hope to do, therefore, is 

 to examine the facts relating to those 

 crops for which stiatistics are available, 

 and to ascertain how far these facts 



