THE 



TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST 



AND 



MAGAZINE OF THE 



CEYLON AGRICULTURAL SOCIETY. 



Vol. XXVII. COLOMBO, DECEMBEE 15th, 1906. No. 6. 



Overproduction in Rubber. 



Some months ago, in this journal, we gave a warning note that the time of 

 overproduction in rubber was not so far off as some people seem to think, 

 and this was followed up by the lecture on the subject given by Mr. Wright at the 

 Rubber Exhibition. Many people seem to think that we were prophesying the 

 almost immediate fall of rubber prices below a remunerative level, and it may be 

 well to discuss the question so far as is necessary to make the position a little 

 more clear. 



In January 1903, the price of fine hard Para (South American) was '3s. 8d., 

 and it rose fairly steadily until May 1905, when it touched the extraordinary figure 

 of 5s. 9d., and since that time it has fallen, till it has reached 5s. Id. Now, in 

 previous years the price Avas rarely above 3s. Qd., which in a way we may therefore 

 regard as the normal (higher) price of Para rubber. The rise of late is due to 

 temporary scarcity, which will probably be done away with by the increase to be 

 expected before very long in the output of plantation rubber. 



Many people think that so many new uses for rubber will be discovered 

 that the price will remain at the present high level for a long time. On the other 

 hand, we are of opinion that the present price is too high for the economical use 

 of rubber in many uses that are known of already. Take for instance the one 

 great use of pavement ; rubber is known to suit admirably for this, and to last 

 almost indefinitely, yet it is not used for it, though even at the present 

 prices, its durability is so great that it would probably be about as cheap 

 as wood. 



The real stimulus to the use of rubber for new purposes, will, it seems to 

 us, hardly come before its price goes back to what we have looked upon above as 

 normal, viz., 3s. to 3s. 6c£. a pound. When, by the increase in production of planta- 

 tion rubber, that figure is once again reached, we may look to see rubber taken 

 up for pavement, and for many other uses, which will keep the price from falling 

 much below that figure for a long while to come ; and we should regard any 

 venture in which the price of rubber was put down above 3s. as a very 

 speculative one. 



